= Cascadia Earthquake = == Full Rip 9.0 == === The Next Big Earthquake in the Pacific Northwest === === Sandi Doughton Central 551.2209164 D732F 2013 === .Science reporter at ''The Seattle Times'' .1700/01/26 ~21:00 local .1964 Alaska 9.2 .2004/12/26 Indian Ocean Sumatra–Andaman earthquake .2011/03/11 Friday Japan Tōhoku .p001 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WNP-3_and_WNP-5 | Satsop Nuclear Power Plant ]] - mostly built .p008 Juan De Fuca plate 4cm/y to the northeast .p009 Bpb Yeats 1977 skeptic, Cal Tech Tom Heaton and Hiroo Kanamori, locked plates .p017 Brian Atwater Neah Bay Grumman canoe . Science 236 (1987): 942-44 Evidence for great Holocene earthquakes ... . at least six drops in 7000 years, as much as 6 feet in some places . Copalis ghost forest, trees drop and buried in silt, correlate tree rings to living "witness" trees upslope .p019 paleoseismology, Kerry Sieh .p034 David Yamaguchi Dendrochronologist .p039 James Gilchrist Swan lived with Makah Indians in 1850s, died 1900. Ivan Doig ''Winter Brothers'' .p046 Kenji Satake at Caltech, Hokkaido University, 1700 tsunami, p048 10 hours from NW to Japan, scaled Cascadia1700 to 9 or above .p055 OSU Chris Goldfinger, Alvin, seafloor cores of landslides, twice as common off Oregon .p057 turbidity currents from 1929 mag 7.2 Grand Banks earthquake cut transatlantic cables .p058 Gary Griggs, underwater landslides 30 stories high, two days to travel 1600 km, '''turbidites''' .p060 Mt Mazama 7770 Ya ash later for dating, 13 major events since, 300, 690, 1190, 2170, 2780 Ya .p071 '''Seattle Fault'' east west thrust fault, Zdenko Frankenburger Daneš gravity meter . Restoration Point and Point Alki, uplift on basalt south, sedimentary on north, Seattle on sediment basin that amplifies quakes .p079 Underwater forests in Lake Washington and Lake Sammamish, quake 900 to 930 AD .p087 faults show up with lidar which can see 10% of ground through treetops .p094 Map, Southern Whidbey Island fault SWIF .p129 2001 Nisqually "deep" quake, like 1909, 1939, 1946, 1949 (big), 1965 . perhaps "water reactivating fault" .p137 Japan, p139 Patrick Corcoran, Cannon Beach (some preparation, probably will be far worse than Japan) .p141 125,000 people vulnerable to tsunami from B.C. to Eureka Cal. 10K to 20K dead? .p141 $1.6B Kamaishi seawall too small .p143 Seaside OR, a mile to high ground across piling bridges (Corcoran ran route for documentary in 7m33s) . "Run for your life 2K", hotel owners won't help .p185 buildings designed to code, not worst case. Fewer shear walls, often glass outsides and concrete (not steel) core . high ceilinged ground floors worse, "nonductile design" breaks . Rainier tower with welded (not bolted) steel frame. Welds can be brittle . Brick buildings, tiltup slab, pre-1973 concrete buildings will probably fail .p198 Safeco field, Century field built on 3700 pilings through fill . Safeco roof on ball bearings with friction dampers . Space Needle on single-pour 30 foot deep concrete, overdesigned structural steel, structural engineer John K. Minasian .p218 laser ranging between south BC mountains, watching millimeter spacing changes . GPS, "silent quakes", episodic slow tremor and quake in the deep crust . increasing strain westward and upward where subduction fault is brittle rather than pliable .p235 p-waves (pressure) up to 17 kmph, (7.6 km/s ), 2 to 5 minutes before the s (shear) wave (400 to 1500 m/s ???) . warning network might cost $200M