== Farsighted == == How We Make the Decisions That Metter the Most == == 2018 Steven Johnson . . 153.83 JOH . . Beaverton Library == .04 1802 Fill Manhattan's [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collect_Pond | Collect Pond ]], build houses, disease, [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Points,_Manhattan | Five Points slum ]] .47 compare [[ http://nycgovparks.org/planning-and-building/capital-project-tracker/project/2877 | Meadow Lake ]] restoration 2013-4 .08 Darwin two column technique, lists of "Not Marry" and "Marry" ... Marry, Marry, QED ... Emma Wedgwood 6mo later .10 1772 Franklin pro-con columns, match and strike out, ''Moral or Prudential Algebra'' .13 Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast..." System 1 intuitive fast, System 2 consciously think through .17 bin Laden compound in Abbotabad Pakistan, leading to May 2011 raid .21 Compare WMD??->Iraq War, failed helicopter rescue Iranian hostages, Bay of Pigs .42 satellite -> 3D computer model .105 stealth [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sikorsky_UH-60_Black_Hawk | Blackhawk ]] .105 Special ops team led by [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_H._McRaven | General William McRaven ]] .117 bin Laden capture and trial, due process and rule of law best weapon against al-Qaeda .124 Downstream risk, Pakistanis might object and withdraw permission for US access .124 strengthen Northern Distribution Network route, bypassing Pakistan, just in case .145 only Biden and Gates opposed mission, Gates changed his mind, Biden later declared Obama had "''cojones'' of steel" .146 one chopper crashed (and destroyed), planned for, remaining chopper used as planned .147 forgot to bring tape measure, verified bin Laden 6'4" height using another person of that height .147 [[ attachment::McRavenPlaque.png | McRaven plaque with tape measure ]] .25 Complex decisions: require full-spectrum analysis, force predictions, involve conflicting objectives, prone to System 1 failings, vulnerable to groupthink .35 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heights_of_Guan | Heights of (sic) Gowan ]], [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_Hill_(Brooklyn) | British forces flank Americans, ]] [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Long_Island | Battle of Brooklyn, ]] capture New York .38 British sea power, Washington outnumbered, split troops, smart move to surrender the city .50 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charrette | charette ]] .56 floor hot but no smoke, recognition-primed fire commander orders men to leave, floor collapses just after .59 Rumsfeld "known unknowns", identify blank spots on cognitive map .62 R. Feynman [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Meaning_of_It_All | The Meaning of It All ]] "to make progress, recognize ignorance and doubt" .67 D&C Heath [[ https://books.google.com/books/about/Decisive.html?id=44_0MwEACAAJ&source=kp_book_description | Decisive 2013, ]] only 30% of teenagers consider more than one alternative ... like most organizations .70 NYC [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Line | High Line Park ]] [[ https://www.google.com/maps/place/The+High+Line/@40.7527943,-74.0043278,1047m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x89c259c7840fb4e5:0x583f615c850a3c91!8m2!3d40.7479925!4d-74.0047649!16zL20vMDdqd3dm | satellite view ]] .71 [[ https://books.google.com/books/about/Why_Decisions_Fail.html?id=GTUN6V5rppQC | Paul Nutt ]] [[ https://archive.org/details/whydecisionsfail0000nutt | open ]] - not just deciding on an option, but discovering new choices .83 Tetlock [[ https://www.amazon.com/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know/dp/0691128715 | Expert Political Judgment ]] pragmatic experts, information from many sources, probabilities, open to experience, more likely to admit error .86 SF scholar [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Westfahl | Gary Westfahl ]] fallacy of extrapolation .92 First [[ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2091872/ | randomized medical trial ]] 1948, streptomycin .96 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_FitzRoy | Robert FitzRoy ]], 1854 founded [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Met_Office | Met Office ]] .99 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Fry_Richardson | Lewis Fry Richardson ]] [[ https://www.google.com/books/edition/Weather_Prediction_by_Numerical_Process/cWXWhffnUokC?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover | Weather Prediction by Numerical Process ]] 1923 .100 now 10 day forecasts far outperform chance, larger winter weather systems easier to model .100 [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_forecasting | Ensemble forecasting ]] .107 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Schelling | Thomas Schelling ]] RAND [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wargame | war gaming ]], Prussian [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kriegsspiel | Kriegsspiel ]] .109 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fleet_problem | Fleet problem ]], misdescribed roles of [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fleet_problem#Fleet_Problem_XIII | XIII ]] .112 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smith_%26_Hawken | Smith & Hawken ]] .112 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Schwartz_(futurist) | Peter Schwartz ]] scenario planning, multiple versions .113 [[ https://archive.org/details/seventomorrows00paul | Seven Tomorrows (1980) ]] .114 scenario planning primes resistance to the "fallacy of extrapolation", rehearsing for uncertainty .118 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pre-mortem | Pre-mortem ]], imagine patient going to die, then explain why .120 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_team | red teams ]] roleplay anagonist's perspective .128 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Bentham | Jeremy Bentham ]] [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utilitarianism | utilitarianism ]] "greatest happiness for the greatest number" .129 [[ https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Executive_Order_12291 | Executive Order 12291 ]] regulatory impact analysis .130 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of_Information_and_Regulatory_Affairs | Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs ]] OIRA .131 Obama era [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_cost_of_carbon | social cost of carbon ]] $36/ton .132 OIRA regulatory analysis, value of human life $9M .133 linear value modelling ... [[ https://www.researchgate.net/publication/307865265_Structured_Decision_Making_A_Practical_Guide_to_Environmental_Management_Choices | Structured Decision Making ]] Gregory et. al. 2012 .136 Google patent [[ https://patents.google.com/patent/US8781669B1/en?oq=8781669 | 8781669 ]]autonomous vehicle risks .138 bad events table .141 minimally viable product, ship simplest product, then refine .143 prepare strategies, allow time for mind to wander .150 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheyenne_(supercomputer) | Cheyenne (supercomputer) ]] in Cheyenne, WY . 3 billion calculations per joule .152 Gerrymandering reduces ideological diversity 153 Diverse groups make smarter decisions .153 All male politicians blocking planned parenthood, more likely to make the wrong choice about ''anything''. .154 Modern decisions worse? No, we've been ecologically destructive for 20,000 years, we have better tools for that now. .155 2015 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement | Paris Agreement ]], Trump vs. 198 nations .157 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_SETI | METI ]][[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/METI_International | organization ]] signalling presence, p158 critics David Brin and Steven Hawking, who decides? .160 [[ http://www.yorku.ca/kdenning/+Homepages/Denning.html | Kathryn Denning ]] global Events Table . but ... radio? /who/ listens to THAT? If ''superadvanced'' ET wants to '''trap''' merely ''advanced'' ET, they might bait the trap with radio .162 2008 Obama [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizen's_Briefing_Book | Citizen's Briefing Book ]] .163 Potential threat of machine superintelligence, ob. Yudkowsky and Bostrom cites .166 Alex Garland's 2014 film [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ex_Machina_(film) | Ex Machina ]] .167 System 2 long term decision-making unique to humans .168 Homo sapiens will survive 5 degree surface temperature increase - with immense suffering and mortality. .172 Drake equation ''(which assumes single path to meta-intelligence)'' civilization lifespan .178 daughter Annie dies, makes Darwin hardened nonbeliever, believer wife Emma, delays natural selection publication .180 publication forced by [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Russel_Wallace | Alfred Russel Wallace ]] competition .182 S. Johnson move from New York to Marin, friend says "Change like this slows down time" . ... more personal family challenges ... .187-202 LONG discussion of novel George Eliot's [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middlemarch | Middlemarch ]] .202 Great novels let us experience parallel lives .208 Literary fiction correlates strongly with enhanced theory of mind skills . some of us nerds focus on atoms and equations, not the emotions of others