= Saving Us = === A Climate Scientist's Case for Hope and Healing in a Divided World === == Katherine Hayhoe Central 363.73874 H419s 2021 == Climate scientist, chief scientist for the [[https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/who-we-are/our-people/katharine-hayhoe/ | Nature Conservancy ]], public policy professor at [[ https://www.depts.ttu.edu/politicalscience/faculty/hayhoe_katharine.php | public policy professor ]] at [[ https://www.ttu.edu/ | Texas Tech University ]] in [[ https://www.google.com/maps/place/Texas+Tech+University/@33.5842635,-101.8804709,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x8640c413f31ec847:0x52db374b7b07849!8m2!3d33.5842591!4d-101.8782822 | Lubbock ]] Attitude change is endogenous, not imposed. Dr. Hayhoe's message is about learning about the person you wish to convince, and learning about where that person can go from where they are now. Learning about '''them, their beliefs, their values, their desires and their worries''', then learning how to make an attitude shift desirable to that particular person. '''p006''' "Like coronavirus, vaccines, and more, climate denial is often just one part of a toxic stew of identity issues that share a key factor: fear of change." ... "That fear drives tribalism" '''p007''' Climate concern framed as alternate Earth-worshipping religion. '''p008''' 2020 26% Alarmed 28% Concerned 20% Cautious 7% Disengaged 11% Doubtful 7% Dismissive (obsessive negative) '''p009''' http://skepticalscience.com" '''p030''' . warming stripes, I want a [[ https://www.etsy.com/listing/1047383400 | scarf ]] or [[ https://www.ebay.com/itm/224853095043 | flag ]] with this pattern: {{ attachment:USA-1895-2020R.png | | width=900 }} '''p043''' . deniers claim "one volcanic eruption produces 10x more carbon pollution than humanity" ||<-3> since 1800: || CO₂ || SO₂ || ergs || mi³ || || 1800 || Krakatoa || || || || || 2.2 || || 1815 || Tambora || Indonesia || || 55MT || || || || 1902 || Santa Maria || Guatemala || || || 4.2e25 || || || 1912 || Novarupta || || 200Mt || || || 3.0 || || 1980 || Mt. Saint Helens || United States || 10Mt || || 1.5e24 || 0.1 || || 1991 || Pinatubo || Philippines || 50Mt || || || 1.2 || . Saint Helens was a "35Mt" blast, a megatonne is 4.18e22 erg, hence 1.46e24 . Tamboura produced 51-58 Mt SO₂, typical CO₂ to SO₂ ratio around 1 to 1 [[ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-54682-1 | volcanos emit ]] 51.3±5.7 Tg (50 MT) CO₂/y non-eruptive and 1.8±0.9 Tg (2 MT) eruptive CO₂/y [[ https://www.statista.com/statistics/276629/global-co2-emissions/ | CO₂ emissions MT ]] || 2020 35260 || 2010 33360 || 2000 26450 || 1990 22760 || 1980 19500 || 1970 14900 || 1960 9390 || 1950 6000 || 1940 4850 || [[ https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2017/06/06/how-much-co2-does-a-single-volcano-emit/?sh=34b82f965cbf | Ethan Siegel, Forbes, June 2017 ]]: "It would take 3 Mount Saint Helens and 1 Mount Pinatubo eruption ''every day'' to equal the amount that humanity is presently emitting." Source of mi³ numbers '''p048''' [[ https://catalog.wccls.org/polaris/search/searchresults.aspx?ctx=1.1033.0.0.6&type=Advanced&term=why%20we%20are%20polarized | Ezra Klein ]] ''Why We're Polarized'' '''p050''' ...the ''overall'' number of hurricanes isn't increasing, but the number of ''strong'' hurricanes is. cite? '''p051''' [[ https://catalog.wccls.org/polaris/search/title.aspx?ctx=1.1033.0.0.6&pos=1&cn=3602121 | I'm Right and You're an Idiot ]] Jim Hoggan 2019 '''p053''' People with the most scientific literacy are the most polarized, ''motivated reasoning'' '''p065''' Wrote "Potential Surprises" with [[ https://climatechange.rutgers.edu/people/affiliates/kopp-robert | Bob Kopp ]], the [[ https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/15 | last chapter ]] of the [[ https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ | 4th US National Climate Assessment ]] '''p067''' [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Wallace-Wells | David Wallace-Wells ]] 2019 book [[ https://catalog.wccls.org/polaris/search/title.aspx?ctx=1.1033.0.0.6&pos=1&cn=3536165 | The Uninhabitable Earth ]] '''p069''' [[ https://catalog.wccls.org/polaris/search/title.aspx?ctx=1.1033.0.0.6&pos=1&cn=2153415 | Don't even think about it : why our brains are wired to ignore climate change ]] 2020 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Marshall_(environmentalist) | George Marshall ]] '''p070''' [[ https://catalog.wccls.org/polaris/search/title.aspx?ctx=1.1033.0.0.6&pos=1&cn=3721138 | The future we choose : surviving the climate crisis ]] 2020 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christiana_Figueres | Christiana Figueres ]] and [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Rivett-Carnac | Tom Rivett-Carnac ]] '''p079''' [[ https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/5/28/18629833/climate-change-2019-green-new-deal | I work in the environmental movement. I don’t care if you recycle. ]] 2019 Mary Annaise Heglar '''p089''' [[ https://www.ted.com/talks/kristie_ebi_how_climate_change_could_make_our_food_less_nutritious?language=en | How Climate Change Could Make Our Food Less Nutritious ]] Kristie Ebi • TED2019 '''p133''' [[ https://multcolib.bibliocommons.com/v2/record/S152C1070369 | Living in Denial: Climate Change, Emotions, and Everyday Life ]] 2011 [[ https://sociology.uoregon.edu/profile/norgaard/ | Kari Norgaard ]] '''p137''' [[ https://catalog.wccls.org/polaris/search/title.aspx?ctx=1.1033.0.0.6&pos=2&cn=1469607 | Merchants of doubt : how a handful of scientists obscured the truth on issues from tobacco smoke to global warming ]] [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naomi_Oreskes | Naomi Oreskes ]] '''p137''' [[ https://www.addall.com/SuperRare/UsedRare.cgi?title=&author=&title=Climate+Cover-Up%3A+The+Crusade+to+Deny+Global+Warming&keyword=&isbn=&exclude=&bookshop=&binding=Any+Binding&min=&max=&dispCurr=USD&order=PRICE&ordering=ASC&match=Y&timeout=15&store=ABAA&store=Alibris&store=Abebooks&store=AbebooksAU&store=AbebooksDE&store=AbebooksFR&store=AbebooksUK&store=Amazon&store=AmazonCA&store=AmazonUK&store=AmazonDE&store=AmazonFR&store=Antiqbook&store=Biblio&store=BiblioUK&store=Booksandcollectibles&store=Ebay&store=EbayUK&store=EbayFR&store=LRB&store=ZVAB&via=used | Climate Cover-Up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming 2009 ]] [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Hoggan_(public_relations_expert) | James Hoggan ]] also [[ https://catalog.wccls.org/polaris/search/title.aspx?ctx=1.1033.0.0.6&pos=1&cn=3602121 | I'm right and you're an idiot : the toxic state of public discourse and how to clean it up ]] '''p147''' [[ https://www.footprintcalculator.org/home/en | Global Footprint Calculator ]] Average US 8, Hayhoe 5, I'm about 2 to 3 '''p171''' Dr. Hayhoe has her own climate-threatening attitudes: ''But while safe, affordable, waste-free, widespread nuclear fusion may be part of our long term future, it is not likely to happen anytime this century --- and despite recent technological advances, nuclear fission isn't the all-encompassing antidote its enthusiasts often make it out to be.'' I agree with the fusion dismissal, not because of delay, but because of the intrinsic environmental cost. Fusion leaks neutrons, perhaps 100 times as many neutrons per kilowatt hour compared to fission. Fusion will result in vastly more radioactive waste per watt generated than fission, and unlike a gen4 reactor, that waste cannot be "bred and reprocessed" until it is close to radiologically inert. OTOH, the fission enthusiasts I know (including myself) do not think of fission (or any single technology) as an "all-encompassing antidote". Fission is merely the second best way to make terrestrial grid energy with minimum ecological destruction (the best way is not wasting energy, doing more with less). And fission, as practiced in the 21st century, is the best way to destroy nuclear weapons - 20% of our grid electricity is powered by that destruction. ---- '''p164''': "In 2019 over 70% of new electricity installed around the world was clean energy" . This sentence is not supported by a citation. There is a huge difference between peak and sustained capacity - a peaking hydro plant produces oodles of power, but not 8766 hours per year. Renewable energy production is important when demand overlaps nature's maximums, but it isn't '''''yet''''' the all-encompassing antidote its enthusiasts often make it out to be. [[ https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Mar/Renewable-Capacity-Statistics-2020 | International Renewable Energy Agency, Renewable Capacity Statistics 2020 ]] page 3 "But even then, renewables represented 72% of total capacity additions in 2019, continuing to outpace fossil fuels by a wide margin." ---- My own focus is on information manufactured from energy - big computations like product design, climate models, video synthesis. A binary bit can be stored with ln(2)kT energy, 18 milli-electron volts, or 3e-21 Joules, or 8e-28 kilowatt-hours. A Dual Layer Blu-Ray video disk is 800 gigabits, so 100% efficient data transmission of a Blu-Ray is (hypothetically) 6.4e-16 kilowatt hours. The U.S. city average power cost is $0.16 per kilowatt hour, hence 100 trillion Blu-Ray videos received per penny. Practically free, even after including the vastly larger energies required to move bits into an optical fiber and back out again. In real life, moving the data is far less expensive than creating it; emphasis on "create", a process that now requires thousands of skills, and tens of thousands of computer hours to assemble the final video product. Computation can displace some of that skill; sets and "extras" can be simulated, flubs and defects removed. Video synthesis computation consumes vast amounts of electricity, which is all converted to heat, over the course of many months. A long wait, made longer by the finite supply of electricity available. For "portable" tasks like computation, vastly more energy is available, mere light-seconds above our heads. Compute chips are practically weightless, direct-bandgap photovoltaics can be close to that. "Thinsats" at the Earth-Moon Lagrange positions might mass [[ http://server-sky.com/LightOrbit#Eccentric| one kilogram per photovoltaic kilowatt captured ]], and radiate waste heat into the interstellar void; round trip signal transit times will be less than three seconds, a miniscule fraction of the time needed to synthesize a movie or calculate a global climate/weather model. Future technologies can export a significant fraction of the energy demand and waste heat caused by our exponentially growing demand for information and computation. '''p236''' Empathy is an antidote to righteousness '''p236''' [[ https://climateoutreach.org | Climate Outreach]]'s helpful manual ''[[ https://climateoutreach.org/reports/how-to-have-a-climate-change-conversation-talking-climate/ | Talking Climate ]]'' [[ attachment:Climate-Outreach-Talking-Climate-Handbook-How-to-have-conversations-about-climate-change-in-your-daily-life.pdf | 2023/2 local download pdf ]] '''p242''' "...and Hosea says, even more to the point "for they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the worldwind" Unfortunate selective quoting, many translations, but the [[ https://biblehub.com/hosea/8-7.htm | NIV Hosea 8-7 ]] reads "They sow the wind and reap the whirlwind. The stalk has no head; it will produce no flour. Were it to yield grain, __foreigners would swallow it up__." Xenophobic fundies will remember the end, not the beginning, sigh. '''p243''' book [[ https://catalog.wccls.org/polaris/search/searchresults.aspx?ctx=1.1033.0.0.6&type=Advanced&term=active%20hope%20how%20to%20face%20the%20mess%20we | Active hope : how to face the mess we're in without going crazy ]]