= The Premonition =
=== A Pandemic Story ===
=== Michael Lewis 2021 ===

Fascinating.  Sadly, no index, and many people involved.  Dates uncertain, chronology confusing,  Difficult to keep track.

The CDC was politically castrated for Swine Flu, blame-avoiding rather than effective, now an academic paper mill



==== People ====

 . '''Amy Acton''' 183
 . '''Jerome Adams''' 209
 . '''Sonia Angell''' 131 192-193 197 223 224 226 228 272 275
 . '''Heidi Avery''' 114 116-117 124-125
 . '''Patrick Ayscue''' 250
 . '''John Barry''' 8 50 51 52 53 100-102
 . '''Josh Batson''' 254 299
 . '''Paige Bateson''' 23 24 25 28 29 31 40 42 43
 . '''Marc Benioff''' 253
 . '''Don Berwick''' 172 237
 . '''Rich Besser''' 121
 . '''Walt Beyeler''' 7
 . '''Rupert Blue''' 103
 . '''Tom Bossert''' 162-163 182 209
 . '''John Brennan''' 116
 . '''Michael Callahan''' 213 (note first name not in text)
 . '''Joe Califano''' 284-286
 . '''Duane Caneva''' 114 164 165 184-185 187 190-191 201 203-205
 . '''Marty Cetron''' 107 115
 . '''Sarah Cody''' 291 
 . '''Theodore Cooper''' 283 285
 . '''Ken Cuccinelli''' 225
 . '''Donald Davie''' 55
 . '''Charity Dean''' 10-13 15 17-43 45-49 126-131 185-210 272-279 290 291 297-301
  . b 1977? Dr internal medicine resident in 2011, divorced, 3 children
  . Junction City, fundy church, OSU Microbiology, Tulane medical school & public health,told to marry at 22 
  . deputy health officer Santa Barbara County,  parking lot autopsy with garden shears
 . '''Kate !DeBurgh''' 32
 . '''Joe !DeRisi''' 135-159 241-255 262-266 268 271 276 278-279 291 299
 . '''Mike !DeWine''' 183
 . '''Lawrence Deyton''' 73
 . '''Arne Duncan''' 121
 . '''Erica Dykehouse''' 267
 . '''David Dynerman''' 255 299
 . '''Harvey Fineberg''' 285-286
 . '''Neil Ferguson''' 119 168 220
 . '''Mary Ferris''' 36 39 40
 .''' Bill Foege''' 279-283 286 288 289 291
 . '''Don Ganem''' 137
 . '''Michael Gelman''' 179-180
 . '''Mark Ghaly''' 228 269 274 275
 . '''Mark Ghilarducci''' 227
 . '''Bob Glass''' ''Sandia'' 3-9 50 79-82 86-88 91 94 99 211 220
 . '''Laura Glass''' ''daughter'' 3 5 6 8 79-81 110-111 211 220
 . '''Richard Hatchett''' 54-59 75-77 81-85 91-95 97-105 112 117-123 160-164 167-170 176 178 183 202 211 220 235 286 292 293 295
 . '''Sam Hawgood''' 245
 . '''Sue Henderson''' 300
 . '''Mark Hepburn''' 164 174 183
 . '''Noreen Hynes''' 56
 . '''Donald Ainslie "D.A." Henderson''' 84 85 99 286-288
 . '''Larry Hogan''' 183
 . '''Stephen Hosea''' 25 26 27 36 37 39
 . '''''Carl Hypothetical''''' 47 48
 . '''Sandy Isaacs'''  ???
 . '''Ronnie Jackson''' 209
 . '''Mark Jarman''' 55
 . '''Delius Oscar Johnson''' 297
 . '''Jerald Scott Jones''' 300-301
 . '''Bob Kadlec''' 193 209
 . '''Chris Kawaja''' 253
 . '''Bob Kocher''' 229-231 234 271 
 . '''Lisa Koonin''' 96-99 101-103 105-110 183 211
 . '''"Mr. Larry" ''(Snake)''''' 145-151
 . '''Bruce Lawler''' 56
 . '''James Lawler''' 112 164-166 175-176 184 208 210
 . '''Odette Levesque''' 73 74
 . '''Mark Lipsitch''' 103 119
 . '''Mrs. Lorenzen''' 297
 . '''Norman Maclean''' 172 186
 . '''William Manchester''' 198
 . '''Paul Markovich''' 270 271 272
 . '''Dave Marcozzi''' 114 164 183
 . '''James O. Mason''' 289
 . '''Carter Mecher''' ''MEH-sher'' 60-77 81 82 86-110 112-119 121 123-126 160-170 172-184 193-194 196 201-204 208-228 235 286 292-296 299
 . '''Debra Mecher''' 89 90 218
 . '''Nancy Messonnier''' 196 225
 . '''Eileen Moran''' 161
 . '''Paul Muldoon''' 55
 . '''Richard Neustadt''' 285-288
 . '''Ed Park''' 300
 . '''Todd Park''' 229-234 236 300
 . '''DJ Patil''' 229-232 236 238
 . '''Bill Parcells''' xv
 . '''Mark Pontes''' 44 48
 . '''Nichole Quick''' 291
 . '''James Reason''' 69 70
 . '''Robert Redfield''' 176 279-281 290-292
 . '''Pete Ricketts''' 183 
 . '''David Senser''' 281 283-288 290-294
 . '''Steve Senser''' 292
 . '''Nick Shapiro''' 277
 . '''''Lucas Simpson''''' pseudonym 250-251
 . '''Andy Slavitt''' 236 237
 . '''Karen Smith''' 45 48 49 130 192-193
 . '''Ken Staley''' 74 109
 . '''Mark Stenglein''' 152
 . '''Allen Thomashefsky''' 28 29 30 34 35 186 276
 . '''Fran Townsend''' 52
 . '''Jim Tuchschmidt''' 65
 . '''Carlo Urbani''' 135
 . '''Rajeev Venkayya''' 50-54 58 59 76 77 94 95 100-101 112 163 167 183 291 
 . '''Deb Wadford''' 223
 . '''Mitchell Wiener''' 121
 . '''Mike Wilkening'''
 . '''Josh Wills''' 229 233
 . '''Michael Wilson''' 151-155
 . '''Agustin Zeferino''' 255-260 276 277

==== Famous ====
 . '''John Bolton''' 182
 . '''Omar Bradley''' 65
 . '''Jerry Brown''' 130 187
 . '''George W. Bush''' 50 51 52 53 56 57 99 114 162
 . '''Jimmy Carter''' 279-280 284 289
 . '''Neville Chamberlain''' 198 199 237 290
 . '''Priscilla Chan''' 157 268 269 275
 . '''Julia Child''' 46
 . '''Winston Churchill''' 198 199 221 237 290
 . '''Ellen (!DeGeneres)''' 11
 . '''Rahm Emanuel''' 116
 . '''Tony Fauci''' 25 59 219 290
 . '''Diane Feinstein''' ???
 . '''Gerald Ford''' 284 293 294
 . '''Orrin Hatch''' 289
 . '''Adolf Hitler''' 198
 . '''Saddam Hussein''' 57
 . '''!LeBron James''' 7
 . '''''The Jasons''''' 138-140 142 145
 . '''Edward Kennedy''' 286
 . '''Jared Kushner''' 237
 . '''Martin Luther''' 280
 . '''Janet Napolitano''' 120
 . '''Gavin Newsom''' California governor 130 192 194 224 226 227 229 231-233 238 242 243 270 271 274 275 277
 . '''Barack Obama''' 114 116 118 121-122 124 160 163 229 237 274 292 294
 . '''Mike Pence''' 225
 . '''Alfred P. Sloan''' 55
 . '''Ronald Reagan''' 289 
 . '''Donald Trump''' 162-163 176 182 187-191 209 216 224 225 238 251 280 281 290
 . '''Oprah (Winfrey)''' 11
 . '''Mark Zuckerberg''' 277

places
 . '''Mann Gulch''' 170-172
 . '''CEPI''' 178-199
 . CDC Division of Partnerships and Strategic Alliances


 .p28 Thomashefsky Clinic, sloppy treatments for rich people
 .p32 Kate !DeBurgh, "...need to be willing to lose your job"
 .p36-p41 UCSB meningitis
 .p43-    December 2017 Santa Ynez fire, January 2018 Montecito mudslide, Casa Dorinda wealthy old-age home
 .p50 US Pandemic plan, October 2005, Dr. Rajeev Venkayya (age 38), Biodefense Directorate
 .p54 Dr. Richard Hatchett  DHS reserve medical corps
 .p60 Dr. Carter Mecher hyper problem focused ICU doc @VA
  .p62 prescribes 1/evening beer for VA patient
   .p65 VA chief Gen. Omar Bradley connects system to medical schools
  .p66 Prime Health: ''So exclusive you fought to get in'' build teams, take data, identify weaknesses
 .p69 ''Human Error'' by James Reason (no libraries nearby)
  . overlapping systems, layering swiss cheese until the holes don't overlap
 .p71 Carter Mecher VA "Lessons Learned" website, intended for medical error, used instead for self-glorification
 .p75 NRP National Response Plan, 400 pages of "government language"
 .p79 Bob Glass model matches 1957-58 flu pandemic data 
  .p81 Daughter visits DC, tells VA infectious disease specialist about model, White House Richard Hatchett calls hours later
 .p86 Close schools and reduce social interaction, disease fell of a cliff, a phase change like water to ice
 .p89 Bob Glass: Bed on stilts beside computer.  Promoted overights from world's most ignored to most important pandemic modeler
 .p90 100,000 K-12 schools in US, 50 million kids, 25 million rode 500,000 buses
 .p91 kids crowd, sit 13 inches apart on bus, 3 feet in classroom.  "couldn't design a system better for transmitting disease than our school system"
 .p92 Targeted Layered Containment
 .p93 systems fail at R₀=3 or 30% compliance
 .p96 Carter Melcher writes Chapter 9 of CDC pandemic plan; disparaged by Lisa Koonin
 .p101 Carter analyzes 1918 flue in Philadelphia, shows worse results due to late response . ''Redneck Epidemiology''
 .p104 people have a very hard time getting their minds around pandemics
  . 30 day penny doubling, "more than 5 million dollars" ... actually 10.74 million dollars
 .p106 Crime rates fall on weekends, when kids are out of school, peaks at 330pm on weekdays, ''cooped up and going nuts''
  . 30M kids use school lunch programs, only 2.6M during summers.