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  .[[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias | hindsight bias, ]]   .[[ https://en.wikipedia. .p1org/wiki/Hindsight_bias | hindsight bias, ]]
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 .p91  .p91 [[ https://research.vu.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/1749356/Baumeister%20Review%20of%20General%20Psychology%205(4)%202001%20u.pdf| Bad is stronger than good ]] Baumeister Finkenauer Vohs 2001
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 .p94 Michael Shermer [[ https://catalog.wccls.org/polaris/search/title.aspx?ctx=1.1033.0.0.6&pos=1&cn=4093125 | Giving the Devil His Due ]] 2020
 .p104 "... sooner or later a false belief bumps up against solid reality, usually on a battlefield" George Orwell, "In Front of Your Nose",1946
 .p105 [[ http://www.riseofthemoors.org ]]
 .p106 [[ https://michaelshermer.com/tag/usa-v-miles-j-julison/ | Shermer testifies in Portland 2013 ]]
 .p107 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_citizen_movement | Sovereign citizens ]]
 .p110 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posse_Comitatus_(organization) | Posse Comitatus ]]
 .p111 [[ https://catalog.wccls.org/polaris/search/title.aspx?ctx=1.1033.0.0.6&pos=1&cn=1718953 | The Believing Brain ]] Shermer 2011
 .p111 Ten components of belief
  .1 The brain is a belief engine
  .2 Beliefs are reinforced by authority
  .3 Beliefs are reinforced by peers
   . [[ https://www.vidartop.no/uploads/9/4/6/7/9467257/harnessing_the_science_of_persuasion.pdf | Robert B. Cialdini 2001 ]] averages of large group guesses
  .4 Beliefs are reinforced by liking and similarity of other beliefs
  .5 Beliefs are reinforced by payoffs, success, and happiness
  .6 Beliefs are reinforced by confirmation bias
  .7 Beliefs are reinforced by optimism and over-optimism [[ https://catalog.wccls.org/polaris/search/title.aspx?ctx=1.1033.0.0.6&pos=1&cn=4077582 | Thinking Fast and Slow, Kahneman 2011 p113 ]]
   .[[ https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Working_Papers/W105_Managerial_miscalibration.pdf | CFOs overconfident market predictions, correlation less than zero ]]
   .also overconfident about own firms, take more risks
  .8 Beliefs are reinforced by self-justification bias
   . [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_E._Tetlock | Philip E. Tetlock ]] Expert political judgment : how good is it? How can we know? PSUlib JA74.5.T38 2005
  .9 Beliefs are reinforced by [[ https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0209900 | sunk-cost bias ]]
  .10 Beliefs are reinforced by
   
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Michael Shermer


Conspiracy

2022 Tigard 001.98 SHE

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MichaelShermer (last edited 2025-03-03 11:52:10 by KeithLofstrom)