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| .p178 ''"I think if the Guinness Book of World Records had a category for people who were in the wrong place at the wrong time, doing the wrong thing, I would be number one in that position, without even a close runner-up." | .p178 "I think if the Guinness Book of World Records had a category for people who were in the wrong place at the wrong time, doing the wrong thing, I would be number one in that position, without even a close runner-up." |
Michael Shermer
Conspiracy
2022 Tigard 001.98 SHE
p003 Bilderberg Group ?Bilderberger?
- since 1954, annual meeting of 150 invitees discussing free market capitalism
- p010 OJ murder evidence clear, but acquitted because LAPD have often been racist and planted false evidence
- p014 Type 1 error assuming real when not (false positive), Type 2 error assuming not real (false negative)
- p014 in distant past: assume predator, safe, assume no predator, get eaten
p015 ultimate (deep) causes embellished with proximate (immediate) psychological&sociological forces
- p016 overlaid with motivated reasoning,
p026 A Culture of Conspiracy Michael Barkun at Syracuse University event, systemic, and super conspiracy theories
p027 https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36373879-conspiracies-declassified Brian Dunning
p027 The 50 60 80 Greatest Conspiracies of All Time Jonathan Vankin John Whalen
similar on Amazon
p028 None Dare Call It Conspiracy by Gary Allen and Larry Abraham
p028 Manichean Machiavellian
p028 Suspicious Minds: Why We Believe Conspiracy Theories Rob Brotherton
p029 Richard Hofstadter 1964 essay The Paranoid Style in American Politics
p033 Christopher Bader list of government coverup beliefs from 9/11 54% to the moon landing 24%
p033 list includes made-up event "the North Dakota crash" with 33%, indicating foundational distrust in US government
p035 Defense of Muslim the Lands by Abdullah Yusuf Azzam intellectual founder of al-Qaeda
p041 Great Replacement ... by 15 million Jews?
Jewish birthrates "lowest in the world" 1.9 compared to 2.3 average in the US
p043 traduce to expose to shame or blame by means of falsehood and misrepresentation
- p048 education vs conspiracism: 42% no high school diploma, 22% with postgraduate degrees
p048 Hart and Graether Something's Going on Here: Psychological Predictors of Belief in Conspiracy Theories
- conspiracy believers "are relatively untrusting, ideologically eccentric, concerned about personal safety, and prone to perceiving agency in actions."
p048 Hanlon's Razor: "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity"
- p051 closer to Fukushima disaster, more tweets about it
p052 Whitson and galinsky 2008 Whitson and galinsky "Lacking control increases illusory pattern perception"
p053 Trump's false or misleading claims total 30573 over 4 years paywall
- p063 we defend our beliefs like lawyers, not test them like scientists
p063 Leon Festinger When Prophecy Fails 1956 p065 cognitive dissonance
p067 Dead and Alive: Beliefs in Contradictory Conspiracy Theories 2012
p070 Pascal Wagner-Egger +3, 2018 Creationism and conspiracism share a common teleological bias
p071 Transcendentalist (intuitive) vs. Empiricist
p071 NASA Fakes the Moon Landing - therefore (Climate) Science is a Hoax Psychological science (at OHSU)
- p071 Immanuel Kant 1784 “From such crooked timber as humankind is made of nothing entirely straight can be made.”
p072 Deanna Kuhn et. al. How Well Do Jurors Reason? Competence Dimensions of Individual Variation in a Juror Reasoning Task
p073 Arthur Goldwag Cults, conspiracies, and secret societies
- p074 LIHOP: Let It Happen On Purpose / MIHOP: MAKE it ...
- p075 5/1941 to 12/1941, 58+21+7+7 intercepted Japanese attack messages; Philippines, Panama, SE Asia, west coast US
p075 Roberta Wohlstetter Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision 1962
p076 locus of control internal ... vs external (helpless, tend to believe conspiracy theories
p077 Alan Moore: Nobody is in control, the world is rudderless
- p079 Rob Brotherton: typical conspiracy theory is an unanswered question
p080 R.B.: watching JFK Movie eroded viewer's civic engagement
- p080 R.B.: HIV-conspiracy-believing African Americans protect less against STDs
p090 losses hurt twice as much as gains feel good Why smart people make big money mistakes-- and how to correct them Gary Belsky 2009
p91 Bad is stronger than good Baumeister Finkenauer Vohs 2001
- p92 Tolstoy in Anna Karenina 1875 "Happy families are all alike, every unhappy family is unhappy in it's own way."
- p92 Russian proverb: "A spoonful of tar can spoil a barrel of honey, but a spoonful of honey does nothing for a barrel of tar"
- p93 Steven Pinker asymmetry of payoffs, risk aversion less costly than gambling
p94 Michael Shermer Giving the Devil His Due 2020
- p104 "... sooner or later a false belief bumps up against solid reality, usually on a battlefield" George Orwell, "In Front of Your Nose",1946
p107 Sovereign citizens
p110 Posse Comitatus
p111 The Believing Brain Shermer 2011
- p111 Ten components of belief
- 1 The brain is a belief engine
- 2 Beliefs are reinforced by authority
- 3 Beliefs are reinforced by peers
Robert B. Cialdini 2001 averages of large group guesses
- 4 Beliefs are reinforced by liking and similarity of other beliefs
- 5 Beliefs are reinforced by payoffs, success, and happiness
- 6 Beliefs are reinforced by confirmation bias
7 Beliefs are reinforced by optimism and over-optimism Thinking Fast and Slow, Kahneman 2011 p113
CFOs overconfident market predictions, correlation less than zero
- also overconfident about own firms, take more risks
- 8 Beliefs are reinforced by self-justification bias
Philip E. Tetlock Expert political judgment : how good is it? How can we know? PSUlib JA74.5.T38 2005
9 Beliefs are reinforced by sunk-cost bias
10 Beliefs are reinforced by an endowment effect
p123 G. Gordon Liddy most conspiracies false because of competency and leakage
- bumblers who can't keep a secret
- echoing Franklin: "three can keep a secret if two are dead"
p126 Paul Sabin The Bet: Paul Ehrlich , Julian Simon ... Ehrlich lost bet about future of Earth's resources
p128 Milton Rokeach The Three Christs of Ypsilanti (1964) Multco book Multco DVD
- Rokeach only cured his godlike delusion that he could manipulate them out of their beliefs
p137 Conspiracy ANTI detection kit: Patternicity, Agenticity, Complexity, # of People, Grandiosity, Scale, Significance, Accuracy, Paranoia, Falsifiability
- p139 ALSO open or closed society
p141 John Crowley fantasy tetralogy Ægypt:
- secret societies have not had power in history, but the notion of them has
p141 David Aaronovitch Voodoo History: The Role of Conspiracy Theory in Shaping Modern History
p142 Debunking 9/11 Myths: Why Conspiracy Theories Can't Stand Up to the Facts by David Dunbar and Brad Reagan
p144 Mark Fenster website 1999 book Conspiracy Theories: Secrecy and Power in American Culture
p145 Why did the World Trade Center collapse? Science, engineering, and speculation
- No designer anticipated a 90,000 liter Molotov cocktail
8.25 Mcal/liter -> 7.4e11 cal -> 3.1e12J -> 740 tons of explosive
Many Skeptic Society links point to a facebook/meta/scam site??? difficult to access or cite.
p146 http://www.implosionworld.com dead link Brent Blanchard
p146-9 nine debunked claims, #8 Steel Frame buildings '''DO''' collapse due to fire
p150 conspiracists WTC7 Chris Mohr
- p150 conspiracists show north side of WTC7, not nearly as damaged as the other side
- p150 conspiracists claim hole in Pentagon too small for airliner with wings ... but those sheared off
p151 Skeptic article
- p153 George W. Bush 2002 "Fool me once, shame on . . . shame on you. Fool me . . . you can't get fooled again."
p153 The airplanes ... only 14 fighters on alert in US. NORAD looks outwards, not inward.
- p154 hijackers disabled transponders, plane difficult to track, 4500 blips to search
- p154 "Unusual" UAL and AA trades on 9/10 because of Sunday 9/9 newsletter recommending them
- p155 Inflight calls "couldn't happen?" Seat-back phones, and at 35000 feet, some cellphones would still get signal according to Qualcomm engineering VP
p157 Reclaiming History: The Assassination of President John F. Kennedy Vincent Bugliosi 2007
"the failure to explain everything perfectly negates all that is explained Louis Nizer
p158 List of 10 other al-Qaeda and ISIS operations and fatwas
- p159 List of 11 Obama "crimes", including a 142% stock market increase to conceal his socialism.
- p160 Birther BS, in spite of 1961/8/4 7:24pm Honolulu birth certificate (same hospital as my niece Ellery around 1985 )
p161 John McCain and Republican Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle agree
p167 On Trial: Lee Harvey Oswald 5 hours 1986
p168 Cold Case JFK PBS video
p168 Truth is the only client vidoe
- p168 40% to 75% believe there was a government conspiracy
p170 Skeptic How the Skeptics Got It Wrong and Why It Matters by David Reitzes
p170 Who Was Lee Harvey Oswald? PBS Frontline Documentary Cran&Loeterman producers
p171 The Dark Triad of personality: Narcissism, Machiavellianism, and psychopathy 2002 Paulus and Williams
p171 Oswald attempts to kill Edwin A. Walker April 1963 using same Mannlicher-Carcano rifle
p172 October 16 job at Texas Schoolbook Depository, weeks before Kennedy motorcade route chosen
- p173 sixth floor sniper's nest ... fingerprints, 3 shell casings (81% of spectators heard three shots)
- p173 ballistic markings on bullet recovered from Connally matched Oswald's rifle
p173 Oswald goes home, picks up .38 Smith & Wesson revolver, shoots patrolman J.D. Tippet, 10 witnesses
p174 Oswald shot by "very emotional" Jack Ruby
p175 Elizabeth Loftus false memory experiments
- p176 Different witnesses claim many different locations for shots, some claim agents shot back
- p176 Wife of one "witness" said "You didn't see that! We were back in the parking lot when it happened!"
p177 "Umbrella Man" protester Louie Steve Witt
- p178 "I think if the Guinness Book of World Records had a category for people who were in the wrong place at the wrong time, doing the wrong thing, I would be number one in that position, without even a close runner-up."
p178 Zapruder film
- p182 illustration showing 1800 fps bullet entering JFK's back, exiting throat 1600 fps tumbling, traverses Connally chest, exiting 900 fps, entering wrist, exiting 400 fps
p183 John McAdams JFK Assassination Logic: How to Think About Claims of Conspiracy 2011
- p185 Why conspiracy?
- 1 Cognitive dissonance: proportionality mismatch between size of cause (one crazy) and event (death of world VIP)
- 2 Fame and Personality: for ordinary murder evidence more than sufficient and convincing
- 3 Camelot: fans elevated Kennedy to mythic status. If JFK served a second term, his image might suffer
- 4 Politics: Kennedy was strongly committed to Vietnam War (said RFK), conspiracists claimed opposite
- p190 Real Political Assassinations
p190 Anna Anderson claims to be Anastasia Romanov
p190 actual remains found and genetically identified in 2007
p192 Charles Guiteau assassinates Garfield, hung 1882
Candice Millard Destiny of the Republic 2011 I Am Going to the Lordy
p192 William McKinley assassinated by Leon Czolgosz in 1901
p193 led to formation of BOI in 1908, precursor of 1935-renamed FBI
p193 Killing the President 2010 by William Oliver and Nancy Marion
}
p193 1835 attempt against President Andrew Jackson, Representative Davy Crockett wrestles him to the ground
p193 1912 Teddy Roosevelt shot by saloonkeeper John Shrank, bullet slowed by eyeglass case and folded speech. "Friends, I shall ask you to be as quiet as possible. I don't know whether you fully understand that I have just been shot—but it takes more than that to kill a Bull Moose"
p193 Castro "If surviving assassinations were an Olympic event, I would win the gold medal"
- p301