MichaelShermer

Michael Shermer

Conspiracy

2022 Tigard 001.98 SHE

• p003 Bilderberg Group ?Bilderberger?

  • since 1954, annual meeting of 150 invitees discussing free market capitalism
• p010 OJ murder evidence clear, but acquitted because LAPD have often been racist and planted false evidence
• p014 Type 1 error assuming real when not (false positive), Type 2 error assuming not real (false negative)
• p014 in distant past: assume predator, safe, assume no predator, get eaten

• p015 ultimate (deep) causes embellished with proximate (immediate) psychological&sociological forces

• p016 overlaid with motivated reasoning,

  • cognitive dissonance,

  • teleological thinking,

  • transcendental thinking,

  • locus of control,

  • anxiety reduction,

  • confirmation bias,

  • attribution bias,

  • hindsight bias,

  • myside bias,

  • oversimplification of complex problems,

  • patternicity,

  • agenticity

• p025 The United States of Paranoia Jesse Walker

• p026 A Culture of Conspiracy Michael Barkun at Syracuse University event, systemic, and super conspiracy theories

• p027 https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36373879-conspiracies-declassified Brian Dunning

• p027 The 50 60 80 Greatest Conspiracies of All Time Jonathan Vankin John Whalen

  • similar on Amazon

• p028 None Dare Call It Conspiracy by Gary Allen and Larry Abraham

• p028 Manichean Machiavellian

• p028 Suspicious Minds: Why We Believe Conspiracy Theories Rob Brotherton

• p029 Richard Hofstadter 1964 essay The Paranoid Style in American Politics

• p033 Christopher Bader list of government coverup beliefs from 9/11 54% to the moon landing 24%

• p033 list includes made-up event "the North Dakota crash" with 33%, indicating foundational distrust in US government

• p035 Defense of Muslim the Lands by Abdullah Yusuf Azzam intellectual founder of al-Qaeda

• p041 Great Replacement ... by 15 million Jews?

  • Jewish birthrates "lowest in the world" 1.9 compared to 2.3 average in the US

• p043 traduce to expose to shame or blame by means of falsehood and misrepresentation

• p048 education vs conspiracism: 42% no high school diploma, 22% with postgraduate degrees

• p048 Hart and Graether Something's Going on Here: Psychological Predictors of Belief in Conspiracy Theories

  • conspiracy believers "are relatively untrusting, ideologically eccentric, concerned about personal safety, and prone to perceiving agency in actions."

• p048 Hanlon's Razor: "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity"

  • cite Murphy's Law and other reasons why things go wrong by Arthur Block 1980

• p051 closer to Fukushima disaster, more tweets about it

• p052 Whitson and galinsky 2008 Whitson and galinsky "Lacking control increases illusory pattern perception"

• p053 Trump's false or misleading claims total 30573 over 4 years paywall

• p063 we defend our beliefs like lawyers, not test them like scientists

• p063 Leon Festinger When Prophecy Fails 1956 p065 cognitive dissonance

• p067 Dead and Alive: Beliefs in Contradictory Conspiracy Theories 2012

• p070 telos purpose of life, teleology

• p070 Pascal Wagner-Egger +3, 2018 Creationism and conspiracism share a common teleological bias

• p071 Transcendentalist (intuitive) vs. Empiricist

• p071 NASA Fakes the Moon Landing - therefore (Climate) Science is a Hoax Psychological science (at OHSU)

• p071 Immanuel Kant 1784 “From such crooked timber as humankind is made of nothing entirely straight can be made.”

• p072 Deanna Kuhn et. al. How Well Do Jurors Reason? Competence Dimensions of Individual Variation in a Juror Reasoning Task

• p073 Arthur Goldwag Cults, conspiracies, and secret societies

• p074 LIHOP: Let It Happen On Purpose / MIHOP: MAKE it ...

• p074 Judgement under uncertainty : heuristics and biases

• p075 5/1941 to 12/1941, 58+21+7+7 intercepted Japanese attack messages; Philippines, Panama, SE Asia, west coast US

• p075 Roberta Wohlstetter Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision 1962

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