Diff for "RocketDreams"

• http://wiki.keithl.com/RocketDreams

Rocket Dreams

Musk, Bezos, and the Inside Story of the New, Trillion Dollar Space Race

• Christian Davenport . Multco . 919.904 D2471r . 2025

• p001 Introduction

Part I: Earth, 2016-2018

• p011 Ch.01 - "I Get This Angry Twice in a Year"

• p011 2017 March 1 Oscar - Manchester by the Sea
• p012 "study hall", 6 page document, 30 minutes reading

• p014 Moon not cold dead rock, instead potential oasis, water in shadowed south pole craters

  • wp hydrates, est. 10 to 1000 ppm, 2025 PRIME-1 mission

  • actually IM-2 mission, PRIME-1 payload of a drill and mass spectrometer ... failed landing, no useful data

• p015 Pence National Space Council

• p017 Shenzhou "Divine" capsule

• p017 Shenzhou 5 mission claimed flawless, actually injurous gees

• p017 cleanup, fake second hatch opening

• p018 Chang'e-1 mapped lunar surface

• p018 2007 Chinese anti-satellite missile test

• p018 Chang'e 3 lander 2023/12

• p019 lunar helium, Schmitt 2011, pdf

• p023 Musk wanted for NASA Mars plan
• p025 Bezos wanted NASA Moon plan

• p026 Ch.02 - Elon's Real Superpower

• p026 Musk taunts Bezos, Blue Origin not moving fast enough
  • uh ... Gradatim Ferociter
• p026 2013 SpaceX granted right to lease Launch Complex 39A
• p027 Musk mantra focus on customers, not competitors
  • yet it seems Davenport focuses on a "competition" with SpaceX already the winner
• p027 Amazon "Get Big Fast", compares 2016 Blue Origin 700 to (NASA funded) SpaceX with 5500
• p028 Blue Origin before 2016 bid as subcontractor, "from now go after SpaceX bids"

• p029 Charles Miller "What can you do relative to the moon by 2020?"

• p029 Brett Alexander

• p029 "Landing on the moon was far more difficult than landing on Earth"
  • no, different, but easier with proper infrastructure. Earth escape energy is 63 MJ/kg, lunar escape velocity energy is 2.8 MJ/kg ... 22 times less energy to dissipate, with no atmosphere to constrain the solution. An "inverse launch loop" track could shed that lunar arrival kinetic energy in d=E/a distance; for acceleration a=20 m/s², d=140 km, time =. Decelerating a few incoming vehicles wouldn't pay for the track, but one vehicle per minute is half a million per year. A complex trajectory and traffic management problem, but staging hundreds of thousands of vehicles into multiple-cycle Hohmann loops, sorting vehicles into multiple "arrival runways" at multiple locations.
• p029 Bezos (born 1964) childhood heros were Apollo astronauts ... hmm. Apollo 11 to 17 was 1969 to 1972; how much would a 5 to 8 year old understand?

• p030 New Shepard and "Very Big Brother" -> New Glenn

  • wp mentions New Glenn 7x2 followed by New Glenn 9x4 "as early as 2027". Launch Complex 36 also Vandenberg Space Launch Complex 9

• p031 also a landing at Shackleton Crater at lunar south pole.

• p032 "I started Amazon just to feed my space habit"

• p033 proposal 24 pages marked "Blue Origin Proprietary & Confidential"

• p034 BE-7 engine using hydrogen extracted from south pole craters.

  • I'm skeptical - how much will this plant weigh (including photovoltaics, and replacement parts?)

• p035 Thomas Zurbuchen Swiss-American, Associate Administrator for the Science Mission Directorate at NASA

• p036 Bezos: "If you go to the moon first, and make the moon your home, you can get to Mars more easily"
  • Solar-grade silicon requires 99.9999% purity or better

  • Blue Alchemist molten regolith electrolysis, 99.999%

  • Blue Origin to Pause New Shepard Flights for No Less Than Two Years

• p036 "... if Bezos was worth $78B ... that would be like a parent with $78 in their pocket"
  • nonsense. If Bezos sold a few percent of his Amazon shares, the share price would plummet.
• p037 Author grousing about delayed March 2 2017 article "An Exclusive Look at Jeff Bezo's Plan to Set Up Amazon-like Delivery for Future Settlement of the Moon", WP paywall
  • perhaps that delay fueled journalist author's seeming dislike of Bezos

• p038 Ch.03 - Converting the Impossible to Late

• p038 "NO WHISKEY? NO BACON? NO THANKS" is a snarky anonymous sneer at Bezos' true statement that Mars, a dusty wasteland, is missing almost everything that Earth-dwellers take for granted. Bezos said that Mars is missing waterfalls, nature, blue skies, restaurants, friends, family, bacon, and whiskey. Antarctica is a garden paradise compared to Mars. “People haven’t really thought this through,” he said.
• p039 "Mars as Musk imagined it could be transformed: an Earth-like planet of blues and greens, even clouds, budding with life."
  • Illumination inverse-square function of distance, black body temperature inverse 4th power of energy flux, hence temperature inverse-square-root of distance. The Earth's black body temperature is 255K; it is warmer at the surface because Earth's thick insulating atmosphere, 287K.
  • Mars distance varies from 1.666 AU to 1.381 AU, hence top-of-atmosphere temperature will range from 255K/sqrt(1.666) to 255K/sqrt(1.381) or 198K to 229K, -75C to -44C. Those cold temperatures are why Mars retains its 0.6% earth pressure CO₂ atmosphere. A somehow-heated-to temperate atmosphere of lighter-molecule O₂/N₂ gas would soon boil away in the shallow (14% escape energy) gravity well of Mars.
  • Bezos is correct. Musk is smoking rope (or investor hopes and money).
• p039 Musk cubicle like others in office space
• p039 Musk horrendously late, not punctual
• p040 "At SpaceX, we specialize inc converting the impossible to late."
• p040 Musk made William Shatner wait four hours
• p041 interview overran "45 minute interview" to 105 minute
• p041 Big Fucking Rocket = Mars Colonial Transporter
• p041 spoke at Guadalajara conference, hoping for critical feedback, instead ridiculous
• p042 smaller BFR, replacing Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Dragon, "astonishing once a week"
• p042 Brownsville bedrock as far down as 25,000 to 50,000 feet, no solid foundation

• p043 Boca Chica west of Florida and Cuba

• p044 bank right to avoid Florida and Cuba

• p046 piping plover

• p046 Steve Davis

• p049 Lauren Dreyer

• p051 310,000 cubic yards of "dirt", man-made mesa, soil surcharging

• p052 Moon Base Alpha

• p054 Ch.04 - On a Jihad

• p056 SpaceX churned through employees. Musk worked insane hours, didn't sleep much, allnighters in office

• p062 Russian RD-180

• p062 rendezvous proximity operations, seen as potentially aggressive

• p064 2014 ULA invests $100M in Blue Origin BE-4

• p068 Bob Smith Blue Origin

• p068 The Onset of Chaotic Motion in the Restricted Problems of Three Bodies

• p069 Rob Meyerson left after Smith hindered access to Bezos

• p070 Ch.05 - The Dark Side of Space

• p071 Trump understood little about space except political value

• p074 GPS jammers

• p075 Starfish Prime 1962, EMP damage in Hawaii, satellites disabled

• p076 National Reconnaissance Office NRO existence classified from 1960 to 19922

• p081 Gwynne Shotwell 2017 13 rockets, more than any other nation

• p082 Jim Bridenstine Trump pick for NASA administator

• p083 Ch.06 - "I'll Say You're Fired in Two Minutes"

• p083 2013 Moore tornadoEF5 intensity

• p085 GPS Radio Occultation signal beams between satellites

• p090 Rubio attacks Bridenstine, retribution for 2016 support of Ted Cruz

• p094 United States Space Force

• p095 mis-spelling surpise
• p096 STS-1 loss risk estimated 1/500, years later recalculated as 1/12
• p097 Dragon escape engines hypergolic. Musk: "There's a lot that can go wrong"

Part II: Earth Orbit, 2018-2020

• p101 Ch.07 - Starman

• p102 Falcon Heavy twice Space Shuttle capacity

• p103 Monty Python Flying Circus favorite Musk TV show
• p107 Author at KSC press site lawn, 2018, distance from pad (39A?) about three miles
• p110 SLS development cost $10B, $1B per flight. Falcon Heavy development cost $500M, $150M per flight
• p111 Chinese say Falcon Heavy 10 years ahead of them
• p111 1996 Long March crashed into a village, more than 6 killed and 57 injured

• p113 Ch.08 - Flying by Swipe

• p113

• p116

• p117

• p118

• p118

• p119

• p120

• p122

• p123

• p123

• p124

• p125

• p128 Ch.09 - Question Everything

• p129

• p129

• p130

• p130

• p131

• p131

• p132

• p133

• p133

• p134

• p135

• p135

• p136

• p137

• p139

• p140

• p141

• p142

• p142

• p143

• p144 Ch.10 - By Amy Means Necessary

• p144

• p145

• p146

• p147

• p148

• p148

• p149

• p150

• p151

• p152

• p154

• p155

• p155

• p156

• p157

• p158

• p158

• p159

• p160 Ch.11 - Artemis

• p160

• p161

• p162

• p163

• p163

• p164

• p165

• p166

• p167

• p167

• p168

• p169

• p169

• p169

• p170

• p170

• p170

• p171

• p172

• p173

• p176

• p177 Ch.12 - "We Just Blew It to Smithereens"

• p178

• p179

• p180

• p181

• p181

• p182

• p183

• p186

• p187

• p190

• p190

• p191

• p192

• p193

• p195 Ch.13 - "Thank You for Flying SpaceX"

• p195

• p196

• p196

• p198

• p199

• p201

• p201

• p202

• p203

• p204

• p205

• p207

• p207

• p208

• p208

• p208

• p209

• p209

• p209

• p210

Part III: Beyond, 2020-2025

• p215 Ch.14 - Super Hardcore

• p227

• p228

• p228

• p229

• p230

• p231 Ch.15 - A Chinese Flag in the Lunar Soil

• p233

• p236

• p237

• p239

• p239

• p240

• p241

• p242

• p246 Ch.16 - Can't Get it Up (to Orbit)

• p246

• p247

• p248

• p249

• p249

• p250

• p251

• p251

• p252

• p252

• p253

• p254

• p254

• p255

• p256

• p257

• p257

• p258

• p258

• p261

• p263

• p264

• p265 Ch.17 - The Gremlins of Unknown Unknowns

• p267

• p272

• p272

• p272

• p273

• p274

• p276

• p276

• p277

• p279 Ch.18 - Toxic, Limping, Abysmal

• p289

• p289

• p290

• p290

• p291

• p292

• p293

• p294

• p294

• p295

• p295

• p296 Ch.19 - Corporate Alchemy

• p296

• p296

• p297

• p297

• p297

• p298

• p298

• p299

• p299

• p300

• p301

• p302

• p302

• p303

• p304

• p305

• p306

• p308

• p308

• p309

• p311

• p311

• p312

• p312

• p313

• p313

• p314

• p315

• p316

• p319 Epilogue - Plant the Flag

• p319

• p320

• p320

• p321

• p322

• p322