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| .p02 fear of flying after 9/11, [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_anthrax_attacks | anthrax-infected mail ]] .p03 flying FAR safer, the drive to the airport more dangerous .p03 If hijackers crashed one flight per WEEK, the risk is 1 in 1.6 million per flight .p03 annual car crash risk is 1 in 6000 .p03 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerd_Gigerenzer | Gerd Gigerenzer ]] observed shift to driving for a year, costing 1595 extra lives .p08 England life expectancy at birth: 1900:46y . 1980:74y . 2003: 80y |
.'''p001 Prologue: 1595''' .p002 fear of flying after 9/11, [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_anthrax_attacks | anthrax-infected mail ]] .p003 flying FAR safer, the drive to the airport more dangerous .p003 If hijackers crashed one flight per WEEK, the risk is 1 in 1.6 million per flight .p003 annual car crash risk is 1 in 6000 .p003 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerd_Gigerenzer | Gerd Gigerenzer ]] observed shift to driving for a year, costing 1595 extra lives .'''p005 ch01 Prehistoric Refugee''' .p008 England life expectancy at birth: 1900:46y . 1980:74y . 2003: 80y |
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| .p08 childbirth deaths: developing world 440/100K developed world 20/100K .p10 June 1990 Lowenstein Mather Dynamic processes in risk perception .p10 Breast cancer highest after 80, 99% guessed lower ages (20% guessed fifties) .p11 Chernobyl estimated extra risk 9000, American skin cancer deaths more than 10,000 per year .p12 cars kill far more than handguns (not if suicide included) |
.p008 childbirth deaths: developing world 440/100K developed world 20/100K .p010 June 1990 Lowenstein Mather Dynamic processes in risk perception .p010 Breast cancer highest after 80, 99% guessed lower ages (20% guessed fifties) .p011 Chernobyl estimated extra risk 9000, American skin cancer deaths more than 10,000 per year .p012 cars kill far more than handguns (not if suicide included) |
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| .p13 Aum Shinrikyo 1995 subway nerve gas, 12 deaths, obesity kills 100K/y, inadequate preventive care "hundreds of thousands" | .p013 Aum Shinrikyo 1995 subway nerve gas, 12 deaths, obesity kills 100K/y, inadequate preventive care "hundreds of thousands" |
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| .p15 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Slovic | Paul Slovic UO ]] [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman | Daniel Kahneman 2002 Economics Nobel]] .p15 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow | System 1 fast/stereotypic Feeling, System 2 slow/logical Reason ]] .p16 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic | availability heuristic ]] .p19 human brain size 5MYa 400cc, 2Mya 650cc, 0.5Mya 120cc, modern 1400cc .p20 human common ancestor 100Kya .p21 René Descartes: body and mind separate. Gilbert Ryle 1949 scorned "the ghost in the machine" .p22 big brain big skull, women's pelvis too small .p24 snake phobia universal inclination, even in snake-free Arctic .p32 [[ https://www.innocenceindanger.org/ | Innocence in Danger ]] "50,000 pedophiles on the internet" POMA .p33 Gandhi age of death: prime with 9, average guess 50. Prime with 140, average guess guess 67 (assassinated age 78) .p39 text: "For every problem there is a solution that is simple, clean, and wrong" |
.p015 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Slovic | Paul Slovic UO ]] [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman | Daniel Kahneman 2002 Economics Nobel]] .p015 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow | System 1 fast/stereotypic Feeling, System 2 slow/logical Reason ]] .p016 [[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic | availability heuristic ]] .'''p018 ch02 Of Two Minds''' .p019 human brain size 5MYa 400cc, 2Mya 650cc, 0.5Mya 120cc, modern 1400cc .p020 human common ancestor 100Kya .p021 René Descartes: body and mind separate. Gilbert Ryle 1949 scorned "the ghost in the machine" .p022 big brain big skull, women's pelvis too small .p024 snake phobia universal inclination, even in snake-free Arctic .'''p032 ch03 The Death of ''Homo economicus''''' .p032 [[ https://www.innocenceindanger.org/ | Innocence in Danger ]] "50,000 pedophiles on the internet" POMA .p033 Gandhi age of death: prime with 9, average guess 50. Prime with 140, average guess guess 67 (assassinated age 78) .p039 text: "For every problem there is a solution that is simple, clean, and wrong" wroteH. L. Mencken |
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| .p040 Kahneman and Tversky [[ https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD0767426.pdf | Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases]] Science 27 Sep 1974 .p041 K&T "Linda description" probability ranking, 83% guessed "teller and feminist" more likely than teller or feminist .p042 '''Rule of Typical Things''' intuitive substitution of certainty for frequent association (my words) .most doctors choose intuition over logic .p045 Gilbert and Sullivan Mercado Act II: Pooh-Bah: ."Merely corroborative detail, intended to give artistic verisimilitude to an otherwise bald and unconvincing narrative" .p046 Earthquakes less likely immediately after a prior one. Earthquake INSURANCE sales HIGHEST after one. . 1700 Cascadia 8.7-9.2 Mw, 325ya [[ https://projects.oregonlive.com/maps/earthquakes/timeline | 40 major over 10,000 years, average every 246 years ]] . 28 earthquakes since 6000 years ago, average every 215 years, longest interval 345 years. . We are near 326 years now. The next BIG ONE may make the region uninhabitable for YEARS . '''We should have disaster relocation insurance''' .p047 .p047 .p054 .p054 .p055 .p055 .p057 .p057 .'''p059 ch04 The Emotional Brain''' .p061 .p061 .p061 .p061 .p063 .p064 .p065 .p067 .p067 .p070 .p071 .p072 .p072 .p071 .p076 .p078 .p082 .p083 .p086 .'''p087 ch05 A Story About Numbers''' .p094 .p096 .p099 .p101 .'''p102 ch06 The Herd Senses Danger''' .p102 .p103 .p103 .p105 .p107 .p109 .p110 .p111 .p112 .p113 .p119 .p121 .p123 .'''p125 ch07 Fear Inc.''' .p125 .p126 .p127 .p127 .p129 .p129 .p131 .p132 .p132 .p133 .p135 .p136 .p137 .p137 .p138 .p142 .p143 .p144 .p145 .p146 .p146 .p147 .p147 .p148 .p149 .p150 .p152 .p153 .'''p155 ch08 All the Fear That's Fit to Print''' .p157 .p157 .p159 .p160 .p162 .p162 .p164 .p165 .p165 .p167 .p169 .p169 .p170 .p170 .p171 .p171 .p173 .p179 .p180 .p181 .'''p182 ch09 Crime and Perception''' .p184 .p185 .p185 .p186 .p187 .p188 .p190 .p191 .p192 .p193 .p193 .p194 .p196 .p202 .p203 .p204 .p206 .p208 .p210 .p210 .p211 .p212 .p214 .p214 .p216 .p216 .'''p218 ch10 The Chemistry of Fear''' .p218 .p219 .p221 .p222 .p223 .p225 .p225 .p225 .p226 .p229 .p234 .p235 .p235 .p236 .p237 .p238 .p240 .p241 .p243 .'''p246 ch11 Terrified of Terrorism''' .p247 .p247 .p248 .p250 .p251 .p258 .p259 .p262 .p263 .p264 .p265 .p267 .p267 .p269 .p269 .p270 .p271 .p272 .p272 .p274 .p275 .p275 .p277 .p278 .p279 .p280 .p280 .p281 .p282 .p283 .p284 .p286 .p287 .p287 .'''p289 ch12 There's Never Been a Better Time To Be Alive''' .p293 .p294 .p295 .p296 .p297 .p297 .p298 .p299 .p301 .p303 .p304 .'''p324 Bibliography''' .p325 ''Risk and Reason : safety, law, and the environment'' Sunstein ... PSU basement HD61 .S86 2002 .more later |
The Science of Fear
Daniel Gardner . 2008 . BvtLib 152.46 GAR
p001 Prologue: 1595
p002 fear of flying after 9/11, anthrax-infected mail
- p003 flying FAR safer, the drive to the airport more dangerous
- p003 If hijackers crashed one flight per WEEK, the risk is 1 in 1.6 million per flight
- p003 annual car crash risk is 1 in 6000
p003 Gerd Gigerenzer observed shift to driving for a year, costing 1595 extra lives
p005 ch01 Prehistoric Refugee
- p008 England life expectancy at birth: 1900:46y . 1980:74y . 2003: 80y
United States 1930:59y 2000:78y . Canada >80y
- p008 childbirth deaths: developing world 440/100K developed world 20/100K
- p010 June 1990 Lowenstein Mather Dynamic processes in risk perception
- p010 Breast cancer highest after 80, 99% guessed lower ages (20% guessed fifties)
- p011 Chernobyl estimated extra risk 9000, American skin cancer deaths more than 10,000 per year
- p012 cars kill far more than handguns (not if suicide included)
- 2023 Oregon guns / 134 homicides / 489 suicides / 587 crashes (20% are pedestrians and cyclists)
- p013 Aum Shinrikyo 1995 subway nerve gas, 12 deaths, obesity kills 100K/y, inadequate preventive care "hundreds of thousands"
p015 System 1 fast/stereotypic Feeling, System 2 slow/logical Reason
p018 ch02 Of Two Minds
- p019 human brain size 5MYa 400cc, 2Mya 650cc, 0.5Mya 120cc, modern 1400cc
- p020 human common ancestor 100Kya
- p021 René Descartes: body and mind separate. Gilbert Ryle 1949 scorned "the ghost in the machine"
- p022 big brain big skull, women's pelvis too small
- p024 snake phobia universal inclination, even in snake-free Arctic
p032 ch03 The Death of Homo economicus
p032 Innocence in Danger "50,000 pedophiles on the internet" POMA
- p033 Gandhi age of death: prime with 9, average guess 50. Prime with 140, average guess guess 67 (assassinated age 78)
- p039 text: "For every problem there is a solution that is simple, clean, and wrong" wroteH. L. Mencken
p040 Kahneman and Tversky Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases Science 27 Sep 1974
p041 K&T "Linda description" probability ranking, 83% guessed "teller and feminist" more likely than teller or feminist
p042 Rule of Typical Things intuitive substitution of certainty for frequent association (my words)
- most doctors choose intuition over logic
- p045 Gilbert and Sullivan Mercado Act II: Pooh-Bah:
- "Merely corroborative detail, intended to give artistic verisimilitude to an otherwise bald and unconvincing narrative"
- p046 Earthquakes less likely immediately after a prior one. Earthquake INSURANCE sales HIGHEST after one.
1700 Cascadia 8.7-9.2 Mw, 325ya 40 major over 10,000 years, average every 246 years
- 28 earthquakes since 6000 years ago, average every 215 years, longest interval 345 years.
- We are near 326 years now. The next BIG ONE may make the region uninhabitable for YEARS
We should have disaster relocation insurance
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p059 ch04 The Emotional Brain
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p087 ch05 A Story About Numbers
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p102 ch06 The Herd Senses Danger
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p125 ch07 Fear Inc.
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p155 ch08 All the Fear That's Fit to Print
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p182 ch09 Crime and Perception
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p218 ch10 The Chemistry of Fear
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p246 ch11 Terrified of Terrorism
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p289 ch12 There's Never Been a Better Time To Be Alive
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p324 Bibliography
p325 Risk and Reason : safety, law, and the environment Sunstein ... PSU basement HD61 .S86 2002
- more later