How We Make the Decisions That Metter the Most
2018 Steven Johnson . . 153.83 JOH . . Beaverton Library
04 1802 Fill Manhattan's Collect Pond, build houses, disease, Five Points slum
47 compare Meadow Lake restoration 2013-4
- 08 Darwin two column technique, lists of "Not Marry" and "Marry" ... Marry, Marry, QED ... Emma Wedgwood 6mo later
10 1772 Franklin pro-con columns, match and strike out, Moral or Prudential Algebra
- 13 Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast..." System 1 intuitive fast, System 2 consciously think through
- 17 bin Laden compound in Abbotabad Pakistan, leading to May 2011 raid
21 Compare WMD??->Iraq War, failed helicopter rescue Iranian hostages, Bay of Pigs
42 satellite -> 3D computer model
105 stealth Blackhawk
105 Special ops team led by General William McRaven
- 117 bin Laden capture and trial, due process and rule of law best weapon against al-Qaeda
- 124 Downstream risk, Pakistanis might object and withdraw permission for US access
- 124 strengthen Northern Distribution Network route, bypassing Pakistan, just in case
145 only Biden and Gates opposed mission, Gates changed his mind, Biden later declared Obama had "cojones of steel"
- 146 one chopper crashed (and destroyed), planned for, remaining chopper used as planned
- 147 forgot to bring tape measure, verified bin Laden 6'4" height using another person of that height
- 25 Complex decisions: require full-spectrum analysis, force predictions, involve conflicting objectives, prone to System 1 failings, vulnerable to groupthink
35 Heights of (sic) Gowan, British forces flank Americans, Battle of Brooklyn, capture New York
- 38 British sea power, Washington outnumbered, split troops, smart move to surrender the city
- 56 floor hot but no smoke, recognition-primed fire commander orders men to leave, floor collapses just after
- 59 Rumsfeld "known unknowns", identify blank spots on cognitive map
62 R. Feynman The Meaning of It All "to make progress, recognize ignorance and doubt"
67 D&C Heath Decisive 2013, only 30% of teenagers consider more than one alternative ... like most organizations
70 NYC High Line Park satellite view
71 Paul Nutt open - not just deciding on an option, but discovering new choices
83 Tetlock Expert Political Judgment pragmatic experts, information from many sources, probabilities, open to experience, more likely to admit error
86 SF scholar Gary Westfahl fallacy of extrapolation
92 First randomized medical trial 1948, streptomycin
96 Robert FitzRoy, 1854 founded Met Office
99 Lewis Fry Richardson Weather Prediction by Numerical Process 1923
- 100 now 10 day forecasts far outperform chance, larger winter weather systems easier to model
107 Thomas Schelling RAND war gaming, Prussian Kriegsspiel
109 Fleet problem, misdescribed roles of XIII
112 Smith & Hawken
112 Peter Schwartz scenario planning, multiple versions
- 114 scenario planning primes resistance to the "fallacy of extrapolation", rehearsing for uncertainty
118 Pre-mortem, imagine patient going to die, then explain why
120 red teams roleplay anagonist's perspective
128 Jeremy Bentham utilitarianism "greatest happiness for the greatest number"
129 Executive Order 12291 regulatory impact analysis
131 Obama era social cost of carbon $36/ton
- 132 OIRA regulatory analysis, value of human life $9M
133 linear value modelling ... Structured Decision Making Gregory et. al. 2012
136 Google patent 8781669autonomous vehicle risks
- 138 bad events table
- 141 minimally viable product, ship simplest product, then refine
- 143 prepare strategies, allow time for mind to wander
150 Cheyenne (supercomputer) in Cheyenne, WY
- 3 billion calculations per joule
- 152 Gerrymandering reduces ideological diversity 153 Diverse groups make smarter decisions
153 All male politicians blocking planned parenthood, more likely to make the wrong choice about anything.
- 154 Modern decisions worse? No, we've been ecologically destructive for 20,000 years, we have better tools for that now.
155 2015 Paris Agreement, Trump vs. 198 nations
157 METIorganization signalling presence, p158 critics David Brin and Steven Hawking, who decides?
160 Kathryn Denning global Events Table
but ... radio? /who/ listens to THAT? If superadvanced ET wants to trap merely advanced ET, they might bait the trap with radio
162 2008 Obama Citizen's Briefing Book
- 163 Potential threat of machine superintelligence, ob. Yudkowsky and Bostrom cites
166 Alex Garland's 2014 film Ex Machina
- 167 System 2 long term decision-making unique to humans
- 168 Homo sapiens will survive 5 degree surface temperature increase - with immense suffering and mortality.
172 Drake equation (which assumes single path to meta-intelligence) civilization lifespan
- 178 daughter Annie dies, makes Darwin hardened nonbeliever, believer wife Emma, delays natural selection publication
180 publication forced by Alfred Russel Wallace competition
- 182 S. Johnson move from New York to Marin, friend says "Change like this slows down time"
- ... more personal family challenges ...
187-202 LONG discussion of novel George Eliot's Middlemarch
- 202 Great novels let us experience parallel lives
- 208 Literary fiction correlates strongly with enhanced theory of mind skills
- some of us nerds focus on atoms and equations, not the emotions of others