Diff for "Farsighted"

Farsighted

How We Make the Decisions That Metter the Most

2018 Steven Johnson . . 153.83 JOH . . Beaverton Library

• 04 1802 Fill Manhattan's Collect Pond, build houses, disease, Five Points slum

  • 47 compare Meadow Lake restoration 2013-4

• 08 Darwin two column technique, lists of "Not Marry" and "Marry" ... Marry, Marry, QED ... Emma Wedgwood 6mo later

• 10 1772 Franklin pro-con columns, match and strike out, Moral or Prudential Algebra

• 13 Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast..." System 1 intuitive fast, System 2 consciously think through
• 17 bin Laden compound in Abbotabad Pakistan, leading to May 2011 raid

• 21 Compare WMD??->Iraq War, failed helicopter rescue Iranian hostages, Bay of Pigs

  • 42 satellite -> 3D computer model

  • 105 stealth Blackhawk

  • 105 Special ops team led by General William McRaven

  • 117 bin Laden capture and trial, due process and rule of law best weapon against al-Qaeda
  • 124 Downstream risk, Pakistanis might object and withdraw permission for US access
  • 124 strengthen Northern Distribution Network route, bypassing Pakistan, just in case

  • 145 only Biden and Gates opposed mission, Gates changed his mind, Biden later declared Obama had "cojones of steel"

  • 146 one chopper crashed (and destroyed), planned for, remaining chopper used as planned
  • 147 forgot to bring tape measure, verified bin Laden 6'4" height using another person of that height

  • 147 McRaven plaque with tape measure

• 25 Complex decisions: require full-spectrum analysis, force predictions, involve conflicting objectives, prone to System 1 failings, vulnerable to groupthink

• 35 Heights of (sic) Gowan, British forces flank Americans, Battle of Brooklyn, capture New York

• 38 British sea power, Washington outnumbered, split troops, smart move to surrender the city

• 50 charette

• 56 floor hot but no smoke, recognition-primed fire commander orders men to leave, floor collapses just after
• 59 Rumsfeld "known unknowns", identify blank spots on cognitive map

• 62 R. Feynman The Meaning of It All "to make progress, recognize ignorance and doubt"

• 67 D&C Heath Decisive 2013, only 30% of teenagers consider more than one alternative ... like most organizations

• 70 NYC High Line Park satellite view

• 71 Paul Nutt open - not just deciding on an option, but discovering new choices

• 83 Tetlock Expert Political Judgment pragmatic experts, information from many sources, probabilities, open to experience, more likely to admit error

• 86 SF scholar Gary Westfahl fallacy of extrapolation

• 92 First randomized medical trial 1948, streptomycin

• 96 Robert FitzRoy, 1854 founded Met Office

• 99 Lewis Fry Richardson Weather Prediction by Numerical Process 1923

• 100 now 10 day forecasts far outperform chance, larger winter weather systems easier to model

• 100 Ensemble forecasting

• 107 Thomas Schelling RAND war gaming, Prussian Kriegsspiel

• 109 Fleet problem, misdescribed roles of XIII

• 112 Smith & Hawken

• 112 Peter Schwartz scenario planning, multiple versions

• 113 Seven Tomorrows (1980)

• 114 scenario planning primes resistance to the "fallacy of extrapolation", rehearsing for uncertainty

• 118 Pre-mortem, imagine patient going to die, then explain why

• 120 red teams roleplay anagonist's perspective

• 128 Jeremy Bentham utilitarianism "greatest happiness for the greatest number"

• 129 Executive Order 12291 regulatory impact analysis

• 130 Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs OIRA

• 131 Obama era social cost of carbon $36/ton

• 132 OIRA regulatory analysis, value of human life $9M

• 133 linear value modelling ... Structured Decision Making Gregory et. al. 2012

• 136 Google patent 8781669autonomous vehicle risks

• 138 bad events table
• 141 minimally viable product, ship simplest product, then refine
• 143 prepare strategies, allow time for mind to wander

• 150 Cheyenne (supercomputer) in Cheyenne, WY

  • 3 billion calculations per joule
• 152 Gerrymandering reduces ideological diversity 153 Diverse groups make smarter decisions

• 153 All male politicians blocking planned parenthood, more likely to make the wrong choice about anything.

• 154 Modern decisions worse? No, we've been ecologically destructive for 20,000 years, we have better tools for that now.

• 155 2015 Paris Agreement, Trump vs. 198 nations

• 157 METIorganization signalling presence, p158 critics David Brin and Steven Hawking, who decides?

• 160 Kathryn Denning global Events Table

  • but ... radio? /who/ listens to THAT? If superadvanced ET wants to trap merely advanced ET, they might bait the trap with radio

• 162 2008 Obama Citizen's Briefing Book

• 163 Potential threat of machine superintelligence, ob. Yudkowsky and Bostrom cites

• 166 Alex Garland's 2014 film Ex Machina

• 167 System 2 long term decision-making unique to humans
• 168 Homo sapiens will survive 5 degree surface temperature increase - with immense suffering and mortality.

• 172 Drake equation (which assumes single path to meta-intelligence) civilization lifespan

• 178 daughter Annie dies, makes Darwin hardened nonbeliever, believer wife Emma, delays natural selection publication

• 180 publication forced by Alfred Russel Wallace competition

• 182 S. Johnson move from New York to Marin, friend says "Change like this slows down time"
  • ... more personal family challenges ...

• 187-202 LONG discussion of novel George Eliot's Middlemarch

• 202 Great novels let us experience parallel lives
• 208 Literary fiction correlates strongly with enhanced theory of mind skills
• some of us nerds focus on atoms and equations, not the emotions of others