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| .71 [[ https://books.google.com/books/about/Why_Decisions_Fail.html?id=GTUN6V5rppQC | Paul Nutt ]] not just deciding on an option, but discovering new choices |
Farsighted
How We Make the Decisions That Metter the Most
2018 Steven Johnson . . 153.83 JOH . . Beaverton Library
04 1802 Fill Manhattan's Collect Pond, build houses, disease, Five Points slum
47 compare Meadow Lake restoration 2013-4
- 08 Darwin two column technique, lists of "Not Marry" and "Marry" ... Marry, Marry, QED ... Emma Wedgwood 6mo later
10 1772 Franklin pro-con columns, match and strike out, Moral or Prudential Algebra
- 13 Kahneman's "Tninking, Fast..." System 1 intuitive fast, System 2 consciously think through
- 17 bin Laden compound in Abbotabad Pakistan, leading to May 2011 raid
21 Compare WMD??->Iraq War, failed helicopter rescue Iranian hostages, Bay of Pigs
42 satellite -> 3D computer model,
- 25 Complex decisions: require full-spectrum analysis, force predictions, involve conflicting objectives, prone to System 1 failings, vulnerable to groupthink
35 Heights of (sic) Gowan, British forces flank Americans, Battle of Brooklyn, capture New York
- 38 British sea power, Washington outnumbered, split troops, smart move to surrender the city
- 56 floor hot but no smoke, recognition-primed fire commander orders men to leave, floor collapses just after
- 59 Rumsfeld "known unknowns", identify blank spots on cognitive map
62 R. Feynman The Meaning of It All "to make progress, recognize ignorance and doubt"
67 D&C Heath Decisive 2013, only 30% of teenagers consider more than one alternative ... like most organizations
70 NYC High Line Park satellite view
more later
71 Paul Nutt not just deciding on an option, but discovering new choices