Diff for "Farsighted"

Farsighted

How We Make the Decisions That Metter the Most

2018 Steven Johnson . . 153.83 JOH . . Beaverton Library

• 04 1802 Fill Manhattan's Collect Pond, build houses, disease, Five Points slum

  • 47 compare Meadow Lake restoration 2013-4

• 08 Darwin two column technique, lists of "Not Marry" and "Marry" ... Marry, Marry, QED ... Emma Wedgwood 6mo later

• 10 1772 Franklin pro-con columns, match and strike out, Moral or Prudential Algebra

• 13 Kahneman's "Tninking, Fast..." System 1 intuitive fast, System 2 consciously think through
• 17 bin Laden compound in Abbotabad Pakistan, leading to May 2011 raid

• 21 Compare WMD??->Iraq War, failed helicopter rescue Iranian hostages, Bay of Pigs

  • 42 satellite -> 3D computer model,

• 25 Complex decisions: require full-spectrum analysis, force predictions, involve conflicting objectives, prone to System 1 failings, vulnerable to groupthink

• 35 Heights of (sic) Gowan, British forces flank Americans, Battle of Brooklyn, capture New York

• 38 British sea power, Washington outnumbered, split troops, smart move to surrender the city

• 50 charette

• 56 floor hot but no smoke, recognition-primed fire commander orders men to leave, floor collapses just after
• 59 Rumsfeld "known unknowns", identify blank spots on cognitive map

• 62 R. Feynman The Meaning of It All "to make progress, recognize ignorance and doubt"

• 67 D&C Heath Decisive 2013, only 30% of teenagers consider more than one alternative ... like most organizations

• 70 NYC High Line Park satellite view

• 71 Paul Nutt not just deciding on an option, but discovering new choices

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