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| .67 D&C Heath [[ ooks.google.com/books/about/Decisive.html?id=44_0MwEACAAJ&source=kp_book_description | Decisive 2013, ]] only 30% of teenagers consider more than one alternative ... like most organizations | .67 D&C Heath [[ https://books.google.com/books/about/Decisive.html?id=44_0MwEACAAJ&source=kp_book_description | Decisive 2013, ]] only 30% of teenagers consider more than one alternative ... like most organizations |
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| .71 [[ https://books.google.com/books/about/Why_Decisions_Fail.html?id=GTUN6V5rppQC | Paul Nutt ]] [[ https://archive.org/details/whydecisionsfail0000nutt | open ]] - not just deciding on an option, but discovering new choices |
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| .71 [[ https://books.google.com/books/about/Why_Decisions_Fail.html?id=GTUN6V5rppQC | Paul Nutt ]] not just deciding on an option, but discovering new choices |
Farsighted
How We Make the Decisions That Metter the Most
2018 Steven Johnson . . 153.83 JOH . . Beaverton Library
04 1802 Fill Manhattan's Collect Pond, build houses, disease, Five Points slum
47 compare Meadow Lake restoration 2013-4
- 08 Darwin two column technique, lists of "Not Marry" and "Marry" ... Marry, Marry, QED ... Emma Wedgwood 6mo later
10 1772 Franklin pro-con columns, match and strike out, Moral or Prudential Algebra
- 13 Kahneman's "Tninking, Fast..." System 1 intuitive fast, System 2 consciously think through
- 17 bin Laden compound in Abbotabad Pakistan, leading to May 2011 raid
21 Compare WMD??->Iraq War, failed helicopter rescue Iranian hostages, Bay of Pigs
42 satellite -> 3D computer model,
- 25 Complex decisions: require full-spectrum analysis, force predictions, involve conflicting objectives, prone to System 1 failings, vulnerable to groupthink
35 Heights of (sic) Gowan, British forces flank Americans, Battle of Brooklyn, capture New York
- 38 British sea power, Washington outnumbered, split troops, smart move to surrender the city
50 charette
- 56 floor hot but no smoke, recognition-primed fire commander orders men to leave, floor collapses just after
- 59 Rumsfeld "known unknowns", identify blank spots on cognitive map
62 R. Feynman The Meaning of It All "to make progress, recognize ignorance and doubt"
67 D&C Heath Decisive 2013, only 30% of teenagers consider more than one alternative ... like most organizations
70 NYC High Line Park satellite view
71 Paul Nutt open - not just deciding on an option, but discovering new choices
more later