Farsighted

How We Make the Decisions That Metter the Most

04 1802 Fill Manhattan's Collect Pond, build houses, disease, Five Points slum
- 47 compare Meadow Lake restoration 2013-4
08 Darwin two column technique, lists of "Not Marry" and "Marry" ... Marry, Marry, QED ... Emma Wedgwood 6mo later
10 1772 Franklin pro-con columns, match and strike out, Moral or Prudential Algebra
13 Kahneman's "Tninking, Fast..." System 1 intuitive fast, System 2 consciously think through
17 bin Laden compound in Abbotabad Pakistan, leading to May 2011 raid
21 Compare WMD??->Iraq War, failed helicopter rescue Iranian hostages, Bay of Pigs
- 42 satellite -> 3D computer model,
25 Complex decisions: require full-spectrum analysis, force predictions, involve conflicting objectives, prone to System 1 failings, vulnerable to groupthink
35 Heights of (sic) Gowan, British forces flank Americans, Battle of Brooklyn, capture New York
38 British sea power, Washington outnumbered, split troops, smart move to surrender the city
56 floor hot but no smoke, recognition-primed fire commander orders men to leave, floor collapses just after
59 Rumsfeld "known unknowns", identify blank spots on cognitive map
62 R. Feynman The Meaning of It All "to make progress, recognize ignorance and doubt"
67 D&C Heath Decisive 2013, only 30% of teenagers consider more than one alternative ... like most organizations
70 NYC High Line Park satellite view

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