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| And so on. The | Words not in index: surprise, discovery, invention, progress, evolution. And so on. In a non-evolving, non-competitive world, rational consistency may optimize utility. But humans are exuberantly mistaken copies of microbes, and the beings that replace us may be mistaken copies of us. |
Noise
A Flaw in Human Judgement
2021 - Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein
153.83 Kahneman Cedar Mill Library
Daniel Kahneman Olivier Sibony Cass R. Sunstein
I read the first few chapters, the message is that people are not consistent or strictly rational.
p22 Sentencing: legal outcomes vary with judge, mood, weather. Guidelines reduce variance.
- KL: for punitive justice, variance discourage more offenses.
p33 Insurance adjusters vary. Results costly.
- KL: Perhaps fixable, but the insured may cut more corners if there is less risk of doing so.
p54 Professional Judgment: judgements vary. Wrong? Variance is how evolution explores.
Words not in index: surprise, discovery, invention, progress, evolution.
And so on. In a non-evolving, non-competitive world, rational consistency may optimize utility. But humans are exuberantly mistaken copies of microbes, and the beings that replace us may be mistaken copies of us.