Noise
A Flaw in Human Judgement
2021 - Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein
153.83 Kahneman Cedar Mill Library
Daniel Kahneman Olivier Sibony Cass R. Sunstein
Read the first few chapters, the message is that people are not consistent or strictly rational.
p22 Sentencing: legal outcomes vary with judge, mood, weather. Guidelines reduce variance.
- KL: for punitive justice, variance discourage more offenses.
p33 Insurance adjusters vary. Results costly.
- KL: Perhaps fixable, but the insured may cut more corners if there is less risk of doing so.
p54 Professional Judgment: judgements vary. Wrong? Variance is how evolution explores.
And so on. The