The Premonition

A Pandemic Story

Michael Lewis 2021

Fascinating. Sadly, no index, and many people involved. Dates uncertain, chronology confusing, Difficult to keep track.

The CDC was politically castrated for Swine Flu, blame-avoiding rather than effective, now an academic paper mill

People

• Amy Acton 183

• Jerome Adams 209

• Sonia Angell 131 192-193 197 223 224 226 228 272 275

• Heidi Avery 114 116-117 124-125

• Patrick Ayscue 250

• John Barry 8 50 51 52 53 100-102

• Josh Batson 254 299

• Paige Bateson 23 24 25 28 29 31 40 42 43

• Marc Benioff 253

• Don Berwick 172 237

• Rich Besser 121

• Walt Beyeler 7

• Rupert Blue 103

• Tom Bossert 162-163 182 209

• John Brennan 116

• Michael Callahan 213 (note first name not in text)

• Joe Califano 284-286

• Duane Caneva 114 164 165 184-185 187 190-191 201 203-205

• Marty Cetron 107 115

• Sarah Cody 291

• Theodore Cooper 283 285

• Ken Cuccinelli 225

• Donald Davie 55

• Charity Dean 10-13 15 17-43 45-49 126-131 185-210 272-279 290 291 297-301

  • b 1977? Dr internal medicine resident in 2011, divorced, 3 children

  • Junction City, fundy church, OSU Microbiology, Tulane medical school & public health,told to marry at 22

  • deputy health officer Santa Barbara County, parking lot autopsy with garden shears

• Kate DeBurgh 32

• Joe DeRisi 135-159 241-255 262-266 268 271 276 278-279 291 299

• Mike DeWine 183

• Lawrence Deyton 73

• Arne Duncan 121

• Erica Dykehouse 267

• David Dynerman 255 299

• Harvey Fineberg 285-286

• Neil Ferguson 119 168 220

• Mary Ferris 36 39 40

• Bill Foege 279-283 286 288 289 291

• Don Ganem 137

• Michael Gelman 179-180

• Mark Ghaly 228 269 274 275

• Mark Ghilarducci 227

• Bob Glass Sandia 3-9 50 79-82 86-88 91 94 99 211 220

• Laura Glass daughter 3 5 6 8 79-81 110-111 211 220

• Richard Hatchett 54-59 75-77 81-85 91-95 97-105 112 117-123 160-164 167-170 176 178 183 202 211 220 235 286 292 293 295

• Sam Hawgood 245

• Sue Henderson 300

• Mark Hepburn 164 174 183

• Noreen Hynes 56

• Donald Ainslie "D.A." Henderson 84 85 99 286-288

• Larry Hogan 183

• Stephen Hosea 25 26 27 36 37 39

• Carl Hypothetical 47 48

• Sandy Isaacs ???

• Ronnie Jackson 209

• Mark Jarman 55

• Delius Oscar Johnson 297

• Jerald Scott Jones 300-301

• Bob Kadlec 193 209

• Chris Kawaja 253

• Bob Kocher 229-231 234 271

• Lisa Koonin 96-99 101-103 105-110 183 211

• "Mr. Larry" (Snake) 145-151

• Bruce Lawler 56

• James Lawler 112 164-166 175-176 184 208 210

• Odette Levesque 73 74

• Mark Lipsitch 103 119

• Mrs. Lorenzen 297

• Norman Maclean 172 186

• William Manchester 198

• Paul Markovich 270 271 272

• Dave Marcozzi 114 164 183

• James O. Mason 289

• Carter Mecher MEH-sher 60-77 81 82 86-110 112-119 121 123-126 160-170 172-184 193-194 196 201-204 208-228 235 286 292-296 299

• Debra Mecher 89 90 218

• Nancy Messonnier 196 225

• Eileen Moran 161

• Paul Muldoon 55

• Richard Neustadt 285-288

• Ed Park 300

• Todd Park 229-234 236 300

• DJ Patil 229-232 236 238

• Bill Parcells xv

• Mark Pontes 44 48

• Nichole Quick 291

• James Reason 69 70

• Robert Redfield 176 279-281 290-292

• Pete Ricketts 183

• David Senser 281 283-288 290-294

• Steve Senser 292

• Nick Shapiro 277

• Lucas Simpson pseudonym 250-251

• Andy Slavitt 236 237

• Karen Smith 45 48 49 130 192-193

• Ken Staley 74 109

• Mark Stenglein 152

• Allen Thomashefsky 28 29 30 34 35 186 276

• Fran Townsend 52

• Jim Tuchschmidt 65

• Carlo Urbani 135

• Rajeev Venkayya 50-54 58 59 76 77 94 95 100-101 112 163 167 183 291

• Deb Wadford 223

• Mitchell Wiener 121

• Mike Wilkening

• Josh Wills 229 233

• Michael Wilson 151-155

• Agustin Zeferino 255-260 276 277

Famous

• John Bolton 182

• Omar Bradley 65

• Jerry Brown 130 187

• George W. Bush 50 51 52 53 56 57 99 114 162

• Jimmy Carter 279-280 284 289

• Neville Chamberlain 198 199 237 290

• Priscilla Chan 157 268 269 275

• Julia Child 46

• Winston Churchill 198 199 221 237 290

• Ellen (DeGeneres) 11

• Rahm Emanuel 116

• Tony Fauci 25 59 219 290

• Diane Feinstein ???

• Gerald Ford 284 293 294

• Orrin Hatch 289

• Adolf Hitler 198

• Saddam Hussein 57

• LeBron James 7

• The Jasons 138-140 142 145

• Edward Kennedy 286

• Jared Kushner 237

• Martin Luther 280

• Janet Napolitano 120

• Gavin Newsom California governor 130 192 194 224 226 227 229 231-233 238 242 243 270 271 274 275 277

• Barack Obama 114 116 118 121-122 124 160 163 229 237 274 292 294

• Mike Pence 225

• Alfred P. Sloan 55

• Ronald Reagan 289

• Donald Trump 162-163 176 182 187-191 209 216 224 225 238 251 280 281 290

• Oprah (Winfrey) 11

• Mark Zuckerberg 277

places

• Mann Gulch 170-172

• CEPI 178-199

• CDC Division of Partnerships and Strategic Alliances
• p28 Thomashefsky Clinic, sloppy treatments for rich people

• p32 Kate DeBurgh, "...need to be willing to lose your job"

• p36-p41 UCSB meningitis
• p43- December 2017 Santa Ynez fire, January 2018 Montecito mudslide, Casa Dorinda wealthy old-age home
• p50 US Pandemic plan, October 2005, Dr. Rajeev Venkayya (age 38), Biodefense Directorate
• p54 Dr. Richard Hatchett DHS reserve medical corps
• p60 Dr. Carter Mecher hyper problem focused ICU doc @VA
  • p62 prescribes 1/evening beer for VA patient
    • p65 VA chief Gen. Omar Bradley connects system to medical schools

  • p66 Prime Health: So exclusive you fought to get in build teams, take data, identify weaknesses

• p69 Human Error by James Reason (no libraries nearby)

  • overlapping systems, layering swiss cheese until the holes don't overlap
• p71 Carter Mecher VA "Lessons Learned" website, intended for medical error, used instead for self-glorification
• p75 NRP National Response Plan, 400 pages of "government language"
• p79 Bob Glass model matches 1957-58 flu pandemic data
  • p81 Daughter visits DC, tells VA infectious disease specialist about model, White House Richard Hatchett calls hours later
• p86 Close schools and reduce social interaction, disease fell of a cliff, a phase change like water to ice
• p89 Bob Glass: Bed on stilts beside computer. Promoted overights from world's most ignored to most important pandemic modeler
• p90 100,000 K-12 schools in US, 50 million kids, 25 million rode 500,000 buses
• p91 kids crowd, sit 13 inches apart on bus, 3 feet in classroom. "couldn't design a system better for transmitting disease than our school system"
• p92 Targeted Layered Containment
• p93 systems fail at R₀=3 or 30% compliance
• p96 Carter Melcher writes Chapter 9 of CDC pandemic plan; disparaged by Lisa Koonin

• p101 Carter analyzes 1918 flue in Philadelphia, shows worse results due to late response . Redneck Epidemiology

• p104 people have a very hard time getting their minds around pandemics
  • 30 day penny doubling, "more than 5 million dollars" ... actually 10.74 million dollars

• p106 Crime rates fall on weekends, when kids are out of school, peaks at 330pm on weekdays, cooped up and going nuts

  • 30M kids use school lunch programs, only 2.6M during summers.