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 . '''Barack Obama''' 114 116 118 121-122 124
 . '''Alfred P. Sloan''' 55

The Premonition

A Pandemic Story

Michael Lewis 2021

Fascinating. Sadly, no index, and many people involved. Dates uncertain, chronology confusing, Difficult to keep track.

  • The CDC was politically castrated for Swine Flu, blame-avoiding rather than effective, now an academic paper mill

People

  • CDC Division of Partnerships and Strategic Alliances

  • Sonia Angell 131 272

  • Heidi Avery 114 116-117 124-125

  • Patrick Ayscue

  • John Barry 8 50 51 52 53 100-102

  • Josh Batson

  • Paige Bateson 23 24 25 28 29 31 40 42 43

  • Marc Benioff

  • Don Berwick

  • Rich Besser 121

  • Walt Beyeler 7

  • Rupert Blue 103

  • Tom Bossert

  • John Brennan 116

  • Duane Caneva 114

  • Marty Cetron 107 115

  • Ken Cuccinelli

  • Donald Davie 55

  • Charity Dean 10-13 15 17-43 45-49 126-131

    • b 1977? Dr internal medicine resident in 2011, divorced, 3 children

    • Junction City, fundy church, OSU Microbiology, Tulane medical school & public health,told to marry at 22

    • deputy health officer Santa Barbara County, parking lot autopsy with garden shears

  • Kate DeBurgh 32

  • Joe DeRisi 271

  • Lawrence Deyton 73

  • Arne Duncan 121

  • Erica Dykehouse

  • David Dynerman

  • Neil Ferguson 119

  • Mary Ferris 36 39 40

  • Mark Ghaly

  • Mark Ghilarducci

  • Bob Glass Sandia 3-9 50 79-82 86-88 91 94 99

  • Laura Glass daughter 3 5 6 8 79-81 110-111

  • Richard Hatchett 54-59 75-77 81-85 91-95 97-105 112 117-123

  • Sam Hawgood

  • Noreen Hynes 56

  • Donald Ainslie "D.A." Henderson 84 85 99

  • Stephen Hosea 25 26 27 36 37 39

  • Carl Hypothetical 47 48

  • Sandy Isaacs

  • Mark Jarman 55

  • Chris Kawaja

  • Bob Kocher 271

  • Lisa Koonin 96-99 101-103 105-110

  • Bruce Lawler 56

  • James Lawler 112

  • Odette Levesque 73 74

  • Mark Lipsitch 103 119

  • Paul Markovich 270 271 272

  • Dave Marcozzi 114

  • Carter Mecher MEH-sher 60-77 81 82 86-110 112-119 121 123-126

  • Debra Mecher 89 90

  • Paul Muldoon 55

  • Todd Park

  • D.J. Patil

  • Bill Parcells xv

  • Mark Pontes 44 48

  • James Reason 69 70

  • David Senser

  • Nick Shapiro 277

  • Lucas Simpson pseudonym

  • Andy Slavitt

  • Karen Smith 45 48 49 130

  • Ken Staley 74 109

  • Allen Thomashefsky 28 29 30 34 35 276

  • Fran Townsend 52

  • Jim Tuchschmidt 65

  • Rajeev Venkayya 50-54 58 59 76 77 94 95 100-101 112

  • Mitchell Wiener 121

  • Mike Wilkening

  • Josh Wills

  • Michael Wilson

  • Agustin Zeferino 276 277

Famous

  • Omar Bradley 65

  • Jerry Brown 130

  • George W. Bush 50 51 52 53 56 57 99 114

  • Priscilla Chan

  • Julia Child 46

  • Ellen (DeGeneres) 11

  • Rahm Emanuel 116

  • Tony Fauci 25 59

  • Diane Feinstein

  • Saddam Hussein 57

  • LeBron James 7

  • Jared Kushner

  • Janet Napolitano 120

  • Gavin Newsom California governor 130 270 271

  • Barack Obama 114 116 118 121-122 124

  • Alfred P. Sloan 55

  • Donald Trump

  • Oprah (Winfrey) 11

  • Mark Zuckerberg 277

places

  • Mann Gulch

  • CEPI

  • p28 Thomashefsky Clinic, sloppy treatments for rich people

  • p32 Kate DeBurgh, "...need to be willing to lose your job"

  • p36-p41 UCSB meningitis
  • p43- December 2017 Santa Ynez fire, January 2018 Montecito mudslide, Casa Dorinda wealthy old-age home
  • p50 US Pandemic plan, October 2005, Dr. Rajeev Venkayya (age 38), Biodefense Directorate
  • p54 Dr. Richard Hatchett DHS reserve medical corps
  • p60 Dr. Carter Mecher hyper problem focused ICU doc @VA
    • p62 prescribes 1/evening beer for VA patient
      • p65 VA chief Gen. Omar Bradley connects system to medical schools

    • p66 Prime Health: So exclusive you fought to get in build teams, take data, identify weaknesses

  • p69 Human Error by James Reason (no libraries nearby)

    • overlapping systems, layering swiss cheese until the holes don't overlap
  • p71 Carter Mecher VA "Lessons Learned" website, intended for medical error, used instead for self-glorification
  • p75 NRP National Response Plan, 400 pages of "government language"
  • p79 Bob Glass model matches 1957-58 flu pandemic data
    • p81 Daughter visits DC, tells VA infectious disease specialist about model, White House Richard Hatchett calls hours later
  • p86 Close schools and reduce social interaction, disease fell of a cliff, a phase change like water to ice
  • p89 Bob Glass: Bed on stilts beside computer. Promoted overights from world's most ignored to most important pandemic modeler
  • p90 100,000 K-12 schools in US, 50 million kids, 25 million rode 500,000 buses
  • p91 kids crowd, sit 13 inches apart on bus, 3 feet in classroom. "couldn't design a system better for transmitting disease than our school system"
  • p92 Targeted Layered Containment
  • p93 systems fail at R₀=3 or 30% compliance
  • p96 Carter Melcher writes Chapter 9 of CDC pandemic plan; disparaged by Lisa Koonin

  • p101 Carter analyzes 1918 flue in Philadelphia, shows worse results due to late response . Redneck Epidemiology

  • p104 people have a very hard time getting their minds around pandemics
    • 30 day penny doubling, "more than 5 million dollars" ... actually 10.74 million dollars

  • p106 Crime rates fall on weekends, when kids are out of school, peaks at 330pm on weekdays, cooped up and going nuts

    • 30M kids use school lunch programs, only 2.6M during summers.

ThePremonition (last edited 2022-02-28 10:25:28 by KeithLofstrom)