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The Premonition
A Pandemic Story
Michael Lewis 2021
Fascinating. Sadly, no index, and many people involved. Dates uncertain, chronology confusing, Difficult to keep track.
- The CDC was politically castrated for Swine Flu, blame-avoiding rather than effective, now an academic paper mill
People
- father Sandia
- Dr 32yo internal medicine resident in 2011, divorced, 3 children
Junction City, fundy church, OSU Microbiology, Tulane medical school & public health,told to marry at 22
- deputy health officer Santa Barbara County, parking lot autopsy with garden shears
- CDC Division of Partnerships and Strategic Alliances
Sonia Angell 272
Patrick Ayscue
John Barry 8
Josh Batson
Paige Bateson 23 24 25 28 29 31 40 42 43
Marc Benioff
Don Berwick
Walt Beyeler 7
Tom Bossert
Duane Caneva
Ken Cuccinelli
Charity Dean 10 11 12 13 15 17-43 45-49
Kate DeBurgh 32
Joe DeRisi 271
Erica Dykehouse
David Dynerman
Neil Ferguson
Mary Ferris 36 39 40
Mark Ghaly
Mark Ghilarducci
Bob Glass 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 50
Laura Glass 3 5 6 8
Sam Hawgood
Richard Hatchett
Stephen Hosea 25 26 27 36 37 39
Carl Hypothetical 47 48
Sandy Isaacs
Chris Kawaja
Bob Kocher 271
Lisa Koonin 96
James Lawler
Paul Markovich 270 271 272
Carter Mecher MEH-sher 60
Debra Mecher
Todd Park
Dj Patil
Bill Parcells xv
Mark Pontes 44 48
David Senser
Nick Shapiro 277
Lucas Simpson pseudonym
Andy Slavitt
Karen Smith 45 48 49
Allen Thomashefsky 28 29 30 34 35 276
Rqjeev Venkayya
Mike Wilkening
Josh Wills
Michael Wilson
Agustin Zeferino 276 277
Famous
George W. Bush 50
Priscilla Chan
Julia Child 46
Ellen (DeGeneres) 11
Tony Fauci 25
Diane Feinstein
LeBron James 7
Jared Kushner
Gavin Newsom 270 271
- California governor
Barack Obama
Donald Trump
Oprah (Winfrey) 11
Mark Zuckerberg 277
places
Mann Gulch
CEPI
- p28 Thomashefsky Clinic, sloppy treatments for rich people
p32 Kate DeBurgh, "...need to be willing to lose your job"
- p36-p41 UCSB meningitis
- p43- December 2017 Santa Ynez fire, January 2018 Montecito mudslide, Casa Dorinda wealthy old-age home
- p50 US Pandemic plan, October 2005, Dr. Rajeev Venkayya (age 38), Biodefense Directorate
- p54 Dr. Richard Hatchett DHS reserve medical corps
- p60 Dr. Carter Mecher hyper problem focused ICU doc @VA
- p62 prescribes 1/evening beer for VA patient
- p65 VA chief Gen. Omar Bradley connects system to medical schools
p66 Prime Health: So exclusive you fought to get in build teams, take data, identify weaknesses
- p62 prescribes 1/evening beer for VA patient
p69 Human Error by James Reason (no libraries nearby)
- overlapping systems, layering swiss cheese until the holes don't overlap
- p71 Carter Mecher VA "Lessons Learned" website, intended for medical error, used instead for self-glorification
- p75 NRP National Response Plan, 400 pages of "government language"
- p79 Bob Glass model matches 1957-58 flu pandemic data
- p81 Daughter visits DC, tells VA infectious disease specialist about model, White House Richard Hatchett calls hours later
- p86 Close schools and reduce social interaction, disease fell of a cliff, a phase change like water to ice
- p89 Bob Glass: Bed on stilts beside computer. Promoted overights from world's most ignored to most important pandemic modeler
- p90 100,000 K-12 schools in US, 50 million kids, 25 million rode 500,000 buses
- p91 kids crowd, sit 13 inches apart on bus, 3 feet in classroom. "couldn't design a system better for transmitting disease than our school system"
- p92 Targeted Layered Containment
- p93 systems fail at R₀=3 or 30% compliance
- p96 Carter Melcher writes Chapter 9 of CDC pandemic plan; disparaged by Lisa Koonin
p101 Carter analyzes 1918 flue in Philadelphia, shows worse results due to late response . Redneck Epidemiology
- p104 people have a very hard time getting their minds around pandemics
- 30 day penny doubling, "more than 5 million dollars" ... actually 10.74 million dollars
p106 Crime rates fall on weekends, when kids are out of school, peaks at 330pm on weekdays, cooped up and going nuts
- 30M kids use school lunch programs, only 2.6M during summers.