The Premonition
A Pandemic Story
Michael Lewis 2021
Fascinating. Sadly, no index, and many people involved. Dates uncertain, chronology confusing, Difficult to keep track.
- The CDC was politically castrated for Swine Flu, blame-avoiding rather than effective, now an academic paper mill
People
- Laura Glass 13yo p: 3-9
- Bob Glass father p: 3-9
- Sandia
- Dr. Charity Dean p: 10-
- 32yo internal medicine resident in 2011, divorced, 3 children
- Junction City, fundy church
- OSU Microbiology
Tulane medical school & public health
- deputy health officer Santa Barbara County
- parking lot autopsy with garden shears
- Dr. Stephen Hosea, p36-37 NIH, Santa Barbara Cottage Hospital
- Paige Bateson nurse p23-25 42-
- Carter Mecher
- Lisa Koonin p96 CDC Division of Partnerships and Strategic Alliances
- p28 Thomashefsky Clinic, sloppy treatments for rich people
p32 Kate DeBurgh, "...need to be willing to lose your job"
- p36-p41 UCSB meningitis
- p43- December 2017 Santa Ynez fire, January 2018 Montecito mudslide, Casa Dorinda wealthy old-age home
- p50 US Pandemic plan, October 2005, Dr. Rajeev Venkayya (age 38), Biodefense Directorate
- p54 Dr. Richard Hatchett DHS reserve medical corps
- p60 Dr. Carter Melcher hyper problem focused ICU doc @VA
- p62 prescribes 1/evening beer for VA patient
- p65 VA chief Gen. Omar Bradley connects system to medical schools
p66 Prime Health: So exclusive you fought to get in build teams, take data, identify weaknesses
- p62 prescribes 1/evening beer for VA patient
p69 Human Error by James Reason (no libraries nearby)
- overlapping systems, layering swiss cheese until the holes don't overlap
- p71 Carter Mecher MEH-sher VA "Lessons Learned" website, intended for medical error, used instead for self-glorification
- p75 NRP National Response Plan, 400 pages of "government language"
- p79 Bob Glass model matches 1957-58 flu pandemic data
- p81 Daughter visits DC, tells VA infectious disease specialist about model, White House Richard Hatchett calls hours later
- p86 Close schools and reduce social interaction, disease fell of a cliff, a phase change like water to ice
- p89 Bob Glass: Bed on stilts beside computer. Promoted overights from world's most ignored to most important pandemic modeler
- p90 100,000 K-12 schools in US, 50 million kids, 25 million rode 500,000 buses
- p91 kids crowd, sit 13 inches apart on bus, 3 feet in classroom. "couldn't design a system better for transmitting disease than our school system"
- p92 Targeted Layered Containment
- p93 systems fail at R₀=3 or 30% compliance
- p96 Carter Melcher writes Chapter 9 of CDC pandemic plan; disparaged by Lisa Koonin
p101 Carter analyzes 1918 flue in Philadelphia, shows worse results due to late response . Redneck Epidemiology
- p104 people have a very hard time getting their minds around pandemics
- 30 day penny doubling, "more than 5 million dollars" ... actually 10.74 million dollars
p106 Crime rates fall on weekends, when kids are out of school, peaks at 330pm on weekdays, cooped up and going nuts
- 30M kids use school lunch programs, only 2.6M during summers.