The Premonition

A Pandemic Story

Michael Lewis 2021

Fascinating. Sadly, no index, and many people involved. Dates uncertain, chronology confusing, Difficult to keep track.

• The CDC was politically castrated for Swine Flu, blame-avoiding rather than effective, now an academic paper mill

People

• CDC Division of Partnerships and Strategic Alliances

• Sonia Angell 131 272

• Heidi Avery 114 116-117 124-125

• Patrick Ayscue

• John Barry 8 50 51 52 53 100-102

• Josh Batson

• Paige Bateson 23 24 25 28 29 31 40 42 43

• Marc Benioff

• Don Berwick

• Rich Besser 121

• Walt Beyeler 7

• Rupert Blue 103

• Tom Bossert

• John Brennan 116

• Duane Caneva 114

• Marty Cetron 107 115

• Ken Cuccinelli

• Donald Davie 55

• Charity Dean 10-13 15 17-43 45-49 126-131

  • b 1977? Dr internal medicine resident in 2011, divorced, 3 children

  • Junction City, fundy church, OSU Microbiology, Tulane medical school & public health,told to marry at 22

  • deputy health officer Santa Barbara County, parking lot autopsy with garden shears

• Kate DeBurgh 32

• Joe DeRisi 271

• Lawrence Deyton 73

• Arne Duncan 121

• Erica Dykehouse

• David Dynerman

• Neil Ferguson 119

• Mary Ferris 36 39 40

• Mark Ghaly

• Mark Ghilarducci

• Bob Glass Sandia 3-9 50 79-82 86-88 91 94 99

• Laura Glass daughter 3 5 6 8 79-81 110-111

• Richard Hatchett 54-59 75-77 81-85 91-95 97-105 112 117-123

• Sam Hawgood

• Noreen Hynes 56

• Donald Ainslie "D.A." Henderson 84 85 99

• Stephen Hosea 25 26 27 36 37 39

• Carl Hypothetical 47 48

• Sandy Isaacs

• Mark Jarman 55

• Chris Kawaja

• Bob Kocher 271

• Lisa Koonin 96-99 101-103 105-110

• Bruce Lawler 56

• James Lawler 112

• Odette Levesque 73 74

• Mark Lipsitch 103 119

• Paul Markovich 270 271 272

• Dave Marcozzi 114

• Carter Mecher MEH-sher 60-77 81 82 86-110 112-119 121 123-126

• Debra Mecher 89 90

• Paul Muldoon 55

• Todd Park

• D.J. Patil

• Bill Parcells xv

• Mark Pontes 44 48

• James Reason 69 70

• David Senser

• Nick Shapiro 277

• Lucas Simpson pseudonym

• Andy Slavitt

• Karen Smith 45 48 49 130

• Ken Staley 74 109

• Allen Thomashefsky 28 29 30 34 35 276

• Fran Townsend 52

• Jim Tuchschmidt 65

• Rajeev Venkayya 50-54 58 59 76 77 94 95 100-101 112

• Mitchell Wiener 121

• Mike Wilkening

• Josh Wills

• Michael Wilson

• Agustin Zeferino 276 277

Famous

• Mann Gulch

• CEPI

• p28 Thomashefsky Clinic, sloppy treatments for rich people

• p32 Kate DeBurgh, "...need to be willing to lose your job"

• p36-p41 UCSB meningitis
• p43- December 2017 Santa Ynez fire, January 2018 Montecito mudslide, Casa Dorinda wealthy old-age home
• p50 US Pandemic plan, October 2005, Dr. Rajeev Venkayya (age 38), Biodefense Directorate
• p54 Dr. Richard Hatchett DHS reserve medical corps
• p60 Dr. Carter Mecher hyper problem focused ICU doc @VA
  • p62 prescribes 1/evening beer for VA patient
    • p65 VA chief Gen. Omar Bradley connects system to medical schools

  • p66 Prime Health: So exclusive you fought to get in build teams, take data, identify weaknesses

• p69 Human Error by James Reason (no libraries nearby)

  • overlapping systems, layering swiss cheese until the holes don't overlap
• p71 Carter Mecher VA "Lessons Learned" website, intended for medical error, used instead for self-glorification
• p75 NRP National Response Plan, 400 pages of "government language"
• p79 Bob Glass model matches 1957-58 flu pandemic data
  • p81 Daughter visits DC, tells VA infectious disease specialist about model, White House Richard Hatchett calls hours later
• p86 Close schools and reduce social interaction, disease fell of a cliff, a phase change like water to ice
• p89 Bob Glass: Bed on stilts beside computer. Promoted overights from world's most ignored to most important pandemic modeler
• p90 100,000 K-12 schools in US, 50 million kids, 25 million rode 500,000 buses
• p91 kids crowd, sit 13 inches apart on bus, 3 feet in classroom. "couldn't design a system better for transmitting disease than our school system"
• p92 Targeted Layered Containment
• p93 systems fail at R₀=3 or 30% compliance
• p96 Carter Melcher writes Chapter 9 of CDC pandemic plan; disparaged by Lisa Koonin

• p101 Carter analyzes 1918 flue in Philadelphia, shows worse results due to late response . Redneck Epidemiology

• p104 people have a very hard time getting their minds around pandemics
  • 30 day penny doubling, "more than 5 million dollars" ... actually 10.74 million dollars

• p106 Crime rates fall on weekends, when kids are out of school, peaks at 330pm on weekdays, cooped up and going nuts

  • 30M kids use school lunch programs, only 2.6M during summers.